Agriculture, forestry, and fishery exports reached USD 56.3 billion through the first nine months, but the year-end home stretch requires the agricultural sector to elevate quality, accelerate deep processing, and broaden market reach.

Fruits, vegetables, and seafood sustain growth momentum

After nine months, agriculture, forestry, and fishery exports continued their expansion, delivering positive contributions to the sector's aggregate growth. Several key commodities—such as fruits and vegetables, seafood, and livestock products—recorded positive results, whereas other commodity groups began exhibiting distinct pressures from softening export prices, volatile market demand, and increasingly rigorous quality standards.

According to Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Vo Van Hung, total agriculture, forestry, and fishery export turnover across the first nine months of 2026 was estimated at USD 56.3 billion, equivalent to roughly 75.9% of the annual target. In September alone, export turnover was estimated at USD 6.51 billion, up 5.7% year-on-year.

Across the export structure, agricultural crops generated approximately USD 29.28 billion, forestry products delivered USD 14.41 billion, seafood reached USD 9.17 billion, and livestock products brought in USD 564.4 million.

Performance across sectors reveals clear divergence: commodities effectively capitalizing on market demand sustained rapid growth, whereas products linked to global market prices faced direct headwinds.

Fruits and vegetables remained among the clearest growth drivers, with nine-month export turnover estimated at USD 7.35 billion, up 19.9%. Durian alone generated approximately USD 2.27 billion through August, surging 47.8% and driving the fruit and vegetable sector's overall gains.

According to Dang Phuc Nguyen, Secretary-General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, the strong climb in produce exports in recent months was heavily driven by durian entering its peak harvest window, while consumer demand across China and several other destinations remained buoyant.

At certain intervals, constrained supplies from regional competitors such as Thailand and Malaysia created additional market space for Vietnamese durian to expand its footprint in China.

Alongside fruits and vegetables, seafood maintained solid growth, with export turnover reaching approximately USD 9.17 billion, up 12.3%.

While livestock products do not yet command a sizable share of total export revenue, their 24.6% expansion indicates that viable market headroom remains, provided quality, quarantine protocols, and technical criteria are consistently met.

These figures also show that the seafood industry continues to navigate headwinds, ranging from input material and logistics costs to mandates against illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. Across certain markets, enterprises must also manage technical non-tariff measures and trade defense actions, adding substantial compliance costs.

Transitioning from selling commodities to selling value

While fruits, vegetables, and seafood preserved steady gains, coffee and rice displayed a different trajectory. Over the nine-month period, coffee export volume reached approximately 1.44 million metric tons, up 15.4%, but turnover contracted 7.3% to USD 6.54 billion as average export prices dropped 19.7%.

For rice, export volume declined 6.1% to roughly 6.4 million tons, while turnover dropped 10.9% to approximately USD 3.11 billion. The average export price softened 5.1% to roughly USD 485/ton.

To fulfill the 2026 target of USD 74.212 billion, the agricultural sector must generate approximately USD 17.91 billion over the final three months of the year, averaging USD 5.97 billion monthly. Under current performance levels, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment projects that full-year export earnings can meet or exceed the target if anchor commodities maintain their momentum and global markets experience no severe disruptions.

Among core commodity groups, wood and wood products, seafood, fruits and vegetables, rubber, and livestock lines are assessed as capable of meeting or outperforming plans. In contrast, coffee, cashews, cassava, and tea face continued pressure, particularly regarding pricing movements and demand across key destinations.

The core operational task for the closing months centers on strengthening production foundations and aligning more tightly with market demand. In practice, linkages between production, processing, and distribution across many areas remain fragile, with numerous raw material zones lacking stable, long-term contracts or specific purchase agreements with processing enterprises.

Data on growing area codes, farming zones, packaging facilities, and origin traceability remains fragmented across multiple sub-sectors, while smallholder, decentralized farming still predominates.

For produce, authorities and businesses must maintain strict surveillance over production unit codes (PUCs), packing facilities, pesticide residues, and traceability. For durian specifically, the strategic orientation is progressively shifting toward raising the share of frozen products, fruit purées, freeze-dried goods, and processed lines to mitigate seasonal gluts, extend shelf life, and extract higher value per unit of raw material.

In the coffee sector, the objective is no longer focused on physical volume growth, but on upgrading product quality, refining sorting and grading standards, and developing higher-margin segments such as roasted and ground coffee, soluble extracts, and certified specialty coffees.

For rice, in addition to stabilizing established markets, the industry needs to expand the share of fragrant and high-grade varieties, while penetrating markets capable of paying a price premium.

Alongside product restructuring, market diversification remains a core strategic pillar. The agricultural sector aims to capitalize more effectively on Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and CPTPP and RCEP member states, while expanding commercial presence across the Middle East, South Asia, Africa, and Latin America for advantageous commodities such as rice, coffee, pepper, processed horticultural goods, seafood, and livestock items.

Permanent Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Tuc emphasized that the development of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries must advance toward a modern, ecological, high-value-added, and sustainable agricultural system. Under this roadmap, production organizations must adapt to align closely with destination market demand from the outset, rather than producing first and seeking outlets afterward.

This means market intelligence must move one step ahead, guiding the planning of raw material scales, varietal structures, input criteria, processing methodologies, brand equity development, and integrated distribution channels. When production chains are structured around end-market requirements, quality control and product value addition become far more achievable.

With the full-year targets of 4% sectoral GDP growth and over USD 74 billion in export turnover for 2026, the year-end home stretch will serve as a key test for the agricultural sector's structural transition. Accelerating turnover remains the immediate objective, but over the long haul, the competitive standing of Vietnamese agro-commodities will depend fundamentally on quality consistency, deep processing, brand value, and the capacity to comply with escalating international standards.

Source: Bao Tai chinh - Dau tu