An additional 12.5% tariff under Section 301 has just taken effect, while a draft bill imposing quotas and tariff rates up to 200% on a number of seafood commodities continues to be pushed forward. Rapid, successive moves from the US cause the gateway into this market to become increasingly narrow, forcing Vietnamese seafood to promptly find answers to retain market share.

The US market has never been a "gentle land" for Vietnamese seafood. After years of confronting anti-dumping duties, countervailing duties, alongside stringent requirements regarding labor, traceability, and technical standards, this commodity sector must cross yet another new layer of barriers. The gateway into the US market is therefore narrowed by one more notch following the latest decision from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).

Barrier upon barrier

Following the final decisions by the USTR in investigations under Section 301, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) updated its newest assessment regarding the impact on the seafood sector. Accordingly, almost all core export commodities of Vietnam do not fall under tariff-exempt categories.

This implies that shrimp, pangasius, tuna, squid, octopus, crab, swimming crab, and processed products will have to bear an additional 12.5% tariff upon importation into the US. This tariff rate is added to MFN tariffs and other tax obligations according to each specific HTSUS code.

This regulation officially took effect starting at 00:01 on July 24, 2026, Eastern Daylight Time. Only shipments already on board vessels and having completed importation prior to July 28 are exempted from the application of the additional tariff.

Notably, the new tariff rate does not impact nations uniformly. For shrimp commodities, Vietnam bears Section 301 tariffs at a 12.5% rate, whereas direct competing rivals such as India, Ecuador, and Indonesia bear merely 10%.

A margin difference of 2.5 percentage points might not appear large on paper, but in a sector bearing increasingly thin profit margins, this factor suffices for importers to consider shifting orders to alternative supply sources.

Pressure mounts even higher as Vietnamese shrimp might additionally have to shoulder anti-dumping duties, countervailing duties, and numerous other compliance costs.

In the tuna group, Ecuador continues to enjoy advantages as it is granted Section 301 tariff exemptions for four product lines, including albacore tuna, fresh or chilled yellowfin tuna, frozen tuna fillets, and a bulk-packaged processed tuna line.

According to VASEP, the additional tariff rate will intensify pressure on pangasius, tuna, and numerous processed products. The resulting consequence is that importers may demand Vietnamese enterprises (DN) reduce prices, jointly shoulder tariff costs, or transition to alternative supply sources.

Worrisome concerns lie not merely in the 12.5% tariff rate, but in the fact that enterprises are having to shoulder increasingly more layers of cost to enter the US market. Two other Section 301 investigations related to excess production capacity and intellectual property have yet to reach final conclusions. From there, it can be observed that the trade environment for Vietnamese seafood goods in the US still harbors potential volatilities.

The US restricts not only through tariffs. Requirements regarding origin traceability, sustainable development, and supply chain transparency are becoming increasingly larger barriers for Vietnamese seafood.

If previously, enterprises mainly responded to each individual barrier separately, now they must confront multiple trade defense instruments applied simultaneously. This issue causes market access costs to escalate day by day. Every new layer of barriers further thins out the competitive edge of Vietnamese seafood.

While seafood exporters are still calculating the impact of Section 301 tariffs, a larger pressure continues to surface. Recently, VASEP sent a report to the Ministry of Industry and Trade assessing impacts and making recommendations regarding the US Domestic Market Restoration Bill of 2026.

According to the bill, total import quota for shrimp from Vietnam is proposed at nearly 58,900 tons per year, divided into multiple sub-quotas for each product group. Quantities exceeding quotas will bear a 40% tariff ad valorem, plus anti-dumping duties, countervailing duties, and other taxes.

If Section 301 raises costs, the new draft bill may completely alter market access capabilities for certain commodities. According to statistics from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), an annual average of approximately 5,000-8,000 tons of Vietnamese shrimp exported to the US exceeds the expected quota threshold. This implies that the aforementioned volume will have to shoulder very large additional tariffs if the draft bill is passed.

Retaining the market through new capabilities

For pangasius, the pressure is even more severe. The draft bill stipulates an import quota for frozen catfish fillets from Vietnam at 84,000 tons per year. However, even quantities within the quota must bear a 50% tariff ad valorem, while the portion exceeding quota bears tariffs up to 200%.

These tariff rates are cumulatively added to anti-dumping or countervailing duties if incurred. According to VASEP, frozen pangasius fillets under HS code 0304.62 currently account for 92.8-98.1% of pangasius export turnover to the US in the 2023-2025 period.

With a 50% tariff rate right within quota, the commercial competitiveness of the product is virtually eliminated. The 200% tariff rate outside quota essentially creates a massive barrier against import activities.

If Section 301 tariffs narrow the entry into the US by one notch, the quota mechanism and tariff rates in the new draft bill could narrow that gateway even further for Vietnamese shrimp and pangasius.

In the shrimp sector, product codes falling within the scope of adjustment of the draft bill also account for 99.5-99.7% of export turnover to the US over the last three years.

According to experts, the alarming factor is not a single new tax rate, but rather that barriers are overlapping layer upon layer. When tariffs, quotas, and compliance requirements increase simultaneously, enterprises' room for price competition will narrow day by day.

In the immediate term, enterprises need to review HTSUS codes, import timing, delivery terms, and tariff obligation allocation clauses in contracts. At the same time, proactively work with importers to reach consensus on handling solutions. Engaging early with customs consulting units in the United States will also help limit arising risks.

Retaining market share in the US will depend more heavily on the capacity to generate added value, ranging from deep processing and brand building to satisfying international standards.

At the policy level, VASEP recommends that the Ministry of Industry and Trade lead and coordinate with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, along with relevant agencies to step up advocacy with the US side. The core focus is promoting Government-level diplomacy, parliamentary diplomacy, and working with executive agencies, sponsoring lawmakers of the bill, alongside committees of the US Congress. The target is to exclude Vietnamese shrimp and pangasius fillets from the scope of application of tariff-rate quota mechanisms.

In parallel with that is stepping up technical consultations, providing data and arguments to protect the legitimate interests of the Vietnamese seafood sector.

Over the long term, many experts argue that the seafood sector needs to treat this as a moment to reposition competitive capacity rather than merely reacting to individual barriers. Diversifying markets and elevating the proportion of deep-processed products will help diminish reliance on a single market. At the same time, enterprises need to control costs, elevate traceability capabilities, and satisfy sustainability standards to increase competitive strength.

The US may continue erecting additional trade barriers in the coming period. But the competitive capacity of Vietnamese seafood cannot rely solely on waiting for barriers to be removed. As the gateway into the US narrows day by day, enterprises can retain the market only if they generate advantages that competitors find difficult to replace.

Source: Vnbusiness