The EU, the United States, and China are the three largest coffee import markets from Vietnam since the beginning of the year.

The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) estimates that in the first 7 months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports are estimated to reach 964 thousand tons, worth nearly 3.54 billion USD, down 13.8% in volume, but up 30.9% in value over the same period last year. In July alone, coffee exports are estimated to reach more than 70,000 tons, down 35% over the same period last year and almost unchanged compared to May 2024.

In the first months of 2024, coffee imports from many major markets such as the EU, the United States, Canada, Japan, and China all increased due to increased demand and high prices.

According to the European Statistical Office (Eurostat), the EU's coffee imports from non-EU markets in the first 5 months of 2024 reached 4.93 billion EUR (equivalent to 5.36 billion USD), an increase of 35.3% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, the EU's coffee imports from Vietnam recorded a high increase of 71.5%, reaching over 1 billion EUR (equivalent to 1.1 billion USD). Vietnam's coffee market share in the EU's total import turnover from the extra-bloc market increased sharply, from 16.1% in the first 5 months of 2023 to 20.35% in the first 5 months of 2024.

According to statistics from the US International Trade Commission, in the first 5 months of 2024, the US imported 3.41 billion USD worth of coffee, up 4.2% over the same period last year. Of which, the US imported 226 million USD worth of coffee from Vietnam, up 31.1% over the same period last year. Vietnam's coffee market share in the total import turnover of the United States accounted for 6.62% in the first 5 months of 2024, higher than the market share of 5.26% in the first 5 months of 2023.

According to statistics from the China Customs Administration, in the first 6 months of 2024, China imported over 553 million USD worth of coffee, an increase of 84.5% over the same period last year. Of which, China imported 41.28 million USD worth of coffee from Vietnam, an increase of 107.1%. Vietnam's coffee market share in China's total import turnover increased from 6.65% in the first 6 months of 2023 to 7.46% in the first 6 months of 2024.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the 2023-2024 crop year, Vietnam's coffee output is estimated at 1.47 million tons - the lowest level in 4 years, down 20% compared to the 2022-2023 crop year (statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development). Coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is likely to continue to decrease due to unfavorable weather factors. Thus, if not counting the inventory carried over from the previous year, Vietnam will only have about 200,000 tons left to export from now until September.

According to the estimate of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), the robusta coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is about 26.7 million bags, the next crop year 2024-2025 of Vietnam will be between 21.4 and 22.7 million bags. This figure is significantly lower than Vicofa's previous preliminary forecast of 24 million bags and much lower than the recent estimate of 27.85 million bags from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Thus, Vietnam currently has only about 148,000 tons of coffee to export in the remaining 2 months of the 2023/2024 crop year (from August to the end of September), until the new crop year begins to be harvested in October this year. This figure is lower than the forecast given by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

The Import-Export Department believes that the Vietnamese coffee industry will benefit in terms of price. In July, coffee export prices continued to increase, reaching 4,844 USD/ton, up 5% compared to June and double that of the same period last year.

According to Bloomberg, global robusta coffee prices will fluctuate in a strong and prolonged upward trend due to concerns about scarce supply from Vietnam.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the world may face a shortage of up to 35 million bags (60kg/bag) of robusta coffee by 2040. In addition, world coffee prices are still supported by increased demand from European buyers before the provisions of the EUDR anti-deforestation law take effect.

The progress of the coffee harvest in Brazil is really putting downward pressure on coffee prices on the world market. Consulting firm Safras & Mercado said that Brazil's 2024/25 coffee harvest was 81% complete as of July 23, faster than the 74% of the same period last year and faster than the 5-year average of 77%. However, world coffee prices are still rising thanks to information that coffee supplies from Mexico and Central America are starting to tighten, earlier in the 12-month export cycle than last year.

Some industry experts also predict that coffee prices will continue to increase until mid-2025 due to supply shortages from major growing regions. Coffee sources for export are looking forward to the new harvest season and it is forecast that coffee exports for the whole year of 2024 could set a record of 5.5 - 6 billion USD...

According to Ngoc Ngan - Cong Thuong Newspaper