The final days of February and early March 2026 witnessed a serious escalation in tensions around the Iran–Israel axis, involving the United States. Within just a few days, military tensions rapidly translated into disruptions in maritime transport and insurance across the Middle East — a region that plays a critical role in the circulation of global energy and goods. For the seafood industry, the impact extends beyond rising transportation costs to include risks of cold chain disruption, localized supply shortages, and price volatility across product segments.

Bottlenecks at the Strait of Hormuz and the chain reaction in maritime transport

The core risk lies at the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route connecting the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. As security warnings intensified, many international shipping lines adjusted their operations. Vessels were instructed to move to safer anchorage zones, some routes through Hormuz were temporarily suspended, and several carriers rerouted voyages around the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Red Sea – Bab el-Mandeb – Suez Canal corridor.

Major container shipping groups including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company simultaneously issued updates announcing temporary suspension of cargo acceptance to certain Gulf ports, the imposition of war risk surcharges, and tighter restrictions on refrigerated container bookings.

The rerouting of vessels extended transit times by approximately 7–14 days depending on the route, reducing the effective operating capacity of fleets and creating shortages of container equipment, particularly refrigerated containers, which have slower turnaround times and higher technical requirements.

Within just a few days, freight rates on the Asia–Dubai route nearly doubled. Emergency surcharges for shipments to and from Gulf countries ranged from USD 1,500 to USD 4,000 per container, with refrigerated containers facing higher charges. For seafood exporters, these costs directly increase product prices and compress profit margins.

Maritime insurance: war risk and the “de facto blockade” effect

Alongside shipping disruptions, the maritime insurance market has also reacted strongly. Several shipowners’ liability insurers and war risk insurance providers have issued notices to cancel or narrow coverage for vessels operating in Iran and the Persian Gulf, with new conditions taking effect within 72 hours.

The International Maritime Organization has called on shipping companies to exercise maximum caution and, if possible, avoid transiting the region until security conditions improve. In practice, when war risk insurance is canceled or premiums surge sharply, many commercial vessels cannot operate unless new coverage is purchased at significantly higher cost.

The result is a form of “de facto closure.” Although no official blockade has been declared, the combination of security risks, tighter insurance coverage, and surging premiums has rendered several maritime routes nearly inactive. For the seafood sector, even shipments that do not directly pass through the conflict zone may face higher costs if vessels within their transport chain call at ports located in designated war-risk areas.

Seafood cold chains: the most vulnerable link

Seafood products require strict temperature control and time-sensitive transportation. The Middle East represents a major consumption market for salmon, shrimp, tuna, and many high-value seafood products imported from Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

When parts of regional airspace become restricted and flight schedules are disrupted, the supply of fresh seafood transported by air may face shortages within just a few days. Importers are then forced to shift toward frozen products. However, this channel also encounters difficulties as refrigerated container bookings become limited or temporarily suspended.

Dubai, home to the Jebel Ali Port operated by DP World, is one of the largest seafood transshipment hubs in the region. When vessels reroute and transit times lengthen, port congestion and shortages of power plugs for refrigerated containers become more likely. Storage and demurrage costs increase significantly, while prolonged storage periods raise the risk of product quality deterioration if safety thresholds are exceeded.

Two-tier impact on seafood prices

Price impacts can be analyzed at two levels.

At the regional level in the Middle East, increased transportation and insurance costs directly raise import prices. Fresh and chilled products may face localized supply shortages, particularly in the premium restaurant and hospitality segments. Retail prices and menu prices may consequently rise.

At the global level, the extent of price transmission depends largely on the duration of the crisis. If the share of global container traffic passing through Hormuz remains relatively limited, the broader container freight market may experience only moderate price pressure. However, companies with direct trade exposure to the Middle East will likely face sustained higher shipping costs, forcing them to restructure market strategies, redirect exports to other regions, or renegotiate contracts.

Short- and medium-term scenarios

In the short term, if tensions ease and security conditions improve, shipping companies may gradually restore routes through the Strait of Hormuz, resume refrigerated container acceptance, and reduce war risk surcharges. Under such circumstances, seafood supply chains — particularly for frozen products — could recover relatively quickly.

Conversely, if the risk environment persists, rerouting via alternative maritime corridors could become a new operational norm. Insurance premiums would remain elevated, war risk surcharges would stay in place, and the capacity for refrigerated container transport to the Gulf region would remain constrained. In such a scenario, seafood import costs in the Middle East could stay high for several months, potentially triggering price volatility in related markets.

Implications for seafood enterprises

The 2026 Middle East crisis demonstrates how geopolitical risks can rapidly transform into cold-chain risks within a matter of days. Seafood enterprises should proactively diversify transportation routes, increase regional cold storage reserves, prioritize long-term freight contracts instead of relying solely on the spot market, and closely monitor developments in maritime insurance and shipping policies.

In an increasingly uncertain global environment, the ability to manage transport and insurance risks will become a decisive factor in maintaining global seafood trade flows, particularly when strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz face heightened risk.

The Middle East remains a promising market for Vietnamese seafood. Vietnam’s seafood exports to the region reached USD 401 million in 2025, up 9.6% compared to 2024. Growth was concentrated in pangasius (USD 175.9 million, up 18.6%), shrimp (USD 54.5 million, up 19.9%), and other fish categories (up 28.6%).

Source: VASEP