According to the latest statistics from the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s merchandise trade picture in November 2025 and the cumulative first 11 months of 2025 continues to record many bright spots in terms of turnover scale, but also clearly reveals structural imbalances.

Impressive figures on the growth of export and import turnover, if viewed superficially, can easily create an optimistic impression that the economy is recovering strongly and that exports continue to serve as the main growth driver. However, when examined more closely by the economic sector—particularly between domestic enterprises and foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises—the picture reveals many issues worthy of reflection.

Exports surge but remain heavily dependent on FDI

In November 2025, merchandise exports reached USD 39.07 billion, down 7.1% from the previous month but up 15.1% compared with the same period in 2024. Cumulatively over the first 11 months of 2025, exports totaled USD 430.14 billion—a very high figure, representing a 16.1% increase year on year. The notable issue, however, lies not only in the growth itself, but in the structure of contributing sectors.

Of the total USD 430.14 billion in export turnover:

• The domestic enterprise sector recorded only USD 102.41 billion, down 1.7%, accounting for just 23.8% of total exports.
• The FDI enterprise sector reached USD 327.73 billion, surging 23.1% and accounting for as much as 76.2%.

Looking back historically, what is concerning is the sharp increase in the export share of the FDI sector. Whereas this sector accounted for only 47% of total export turnover in 2000, 54.2% in 2010, and remained at around 70–72% during 2015–2024, its share jumped to 76.2% in the first 11 months of 2025. This means that the role of domestic enterprises in exports has been steadily shrinking—from 53% in 2000 to 28.3% in 2024, and now down to just 23.8%. This is a structural trend rather than a temporary phenomenon, reflecting the relative weakening of domestic production capacity compared with that of FDI enterprises.

Imports grow rapidly and the domestic sector continues to run a trade deficit

On the import side, merchandise imports in November 2025 amounted to USD 37.98 billion, down 3.7% from the previous month but up 16.0% year on year. Over the first 11 months of 2025, total imports reached USD 409.61 billion, up 18.4% compared with the same period in 2024. Of this, the domestic economic sector accounted for USD 128.4 billion, up 1.7%, while the FDI sector reached USD 281.21 billion, up a strong 28%.

As a result, Vietnam recorded a merchandise trade surplus of more than USD 20.5 billion in the first 11 months of 2025. This is a sizable figure, but it should not be viewed with excessive optimism. A deeper and more substantive look shows that this surplus is generated entirely by the FDI sector. While the FDI sector posted a trade surplus of USD 46.52 billion, the domestic sector ran a trade deficit of nearly USD 26 billion. The domestic sector consistently runs a deficit, while the FDI sector consistently records a surplus.

According to the System of National Accounts (SNA), whether the trade surplus comes from the FDI sector or the domestic sector, the value added is still counted toward GDP. However, the value added that Vietnam actually retains from FDI-sector exports is very low—only slightly above 10% of export value. In major sectors such as electronics, mobile phones, and components, the “processing” or assembly value added in Vietnam accounts for only a few percent, while the remainder comes from imported components, equipment, and machinery from other countries before the final products are exported.

When profits in the FDI sector increase, capital outflows also rise through higher payments of income to foreign owners. Average annual GDP growth at current prices in 2024 compared with 2010 was about 11%, while net income payments abroad increased by 21%. The growth rate of outward capital flows at current prices has therefore exceeded the growth rate of GDP at current prices.

Average annual GDP growth at current prices in 2024 compared with 2010 was about 11%, while net income payments abroad rose by 21%; the growth rate of outward capital flows at current prices was higher than GDP growth at current prices.

Source: Kinh te Sai Gon Online