India lifts the export ban, Vietnamese rice will be affected more in price than in quantity

06/05/2026

India accounts for about 40% of world rice exports. India's lifting of the rice export ban will have an immediate and strong impact on exporting countries, including Vietnam.

Information was provided by Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong - Director of the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development); information at the regular press conference of the second quarter of 2024 organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development on the afternoon of June 28, in Hanoi.

India lifts the ban on rice exports, the price and quantity of Vietnamese rice exports will be affected

Sharing at the press conference, Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong said, according to the report of the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Hau Giang province; In the Winter-Spring crop of 2023 - 2024, salinity occurred on 2.2 hectares of salinity in hamlet 9, Vi Thang commune, Vi Thuy district. This also happened in the Summer-Autumn crop and on this area, the locality is currently continuing to monitor and assess the damage.

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Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong - Director of the Department of Crop Production shared at the press conference

Determining the cause, Mr. Cuong commented that this is a difficult problem. Whether it is due to the impact of using sea sand leading to salinity in this area needs to be systematically evaluated; comprehensiveness and the participation of research agencies, state management agencies and scientists.

“In the immediate future, we recorded saline intrusion in this area. As for determining the cause, we are currently coordinating with localities and relevant agencies as well as scientists, but reaching a final conclusion will take time," Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong shared.

To prevent the impact of salinity caused by the impact of sea sand (if any) on rice growing areas, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has directed the Department of Crop Production to issue Standards on land and water resources, which sets out specific requirements on boundaries if units use sea sand for construction, in order to avoid the occurrence of salinity.

In the first half of 2024, rice exports will reach 4.68 million tons (up 10.4%), worth 2.98 billion USD (up 32%)

Regarding the issue, what impact will the 1 million hectares of high-quality rice project have on the rice market from now until the end of the year? Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong informed that because this is a big policy, it is necessary to take careful and appropriate steps. Currently, pilot models are being built in a few localities, based on which they can be replicated. Therefore, the Project will not have any impact on the rice market from now until the end of the year.

Regarding the content, if India lifts the rice export ban, how will it impact the Vietnamese rice market? Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong said, currently this market accounts for about 40% of world rice exports; Therefore, India's policy moves will immediately, immediately and strongly impact rice exporting countries in the world, including Vietnam and Thailand.

For Vietnam, it will affect two issues including the quantity import demand of partners and export rice prices, in which, Mr. Cuong commented; If there is a lifting of the rice export ban, the most obvious impact will be on price, but in terms of quantity, with current demand and world rice output, the impact will be less.

Rice exports have earned 2.98 billion USD

According to a report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the first 6 months of the year, the country cultivated 5.03 million hectares of rice, an increase of 0.9% over the same period last year. As of June 28, the whole country had harvested 3.48 million hectares of rice, an increase of 0.5%; Average yield is 67.1 tons/ha, an increase of 0.7 tons/ha; Output on harvested area reached 23.3 million tons, up 1.6% over the same period last year.

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Mr. Phung Duc Tien - Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development informed at the press conference

In the first 6 months of the year, rice exports reached 4.68 million tons (up 10.4%), worth 2.98 billion USD (up 32%). Mr. Phung Duc Tien - Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development said that with this momentum, rice exports will reach 8 million tons.

Also according to Mr. Phung Duc Tien, the total export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the first 6 months of the year reached 29.2 billion USD, an increase of 19% over the same period in 2023. Of which, the main agricultural product group is 15.76 billion USD, increased by 24.4%; Main forest products 7.95 billion USD, up 21.2%; seafood 4.36 billion USD, up 4.9%; livestock products 240 million USD, an increase of 3.8%. Production inputs alone were 904 million USD, down 1.8% and salt was 2.3 million USD, down 1.7%. From the results achieved in the first 6 months of the year, it is hoped that this year, agricultural, forestry and fishery export turnover will earn 54 billion USD.

Regarding the tasks set in the last 6 months of the year for the agricultural sector, Mr. Phung Duc Tien said that the Ministry will focus on disbursement of public investment; which focuses on irrigation infrastructure, natural disaster prevention, logistics, fisheries, forestry and aquaculture; Science and technology need to be a pioneer; Promote processing and deep processing, prevent natural disasters and epidemics...

With the overall implementation of livestock, aquaculture, cultivation, and forestry strategies, Mr. Phung Duc Tien expects the growth rate of the agricultural sector to be maintained; The next quarter increases higher than the previous quarter and the next year increases higher than the previous year.

Source: vietnamexport

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