Shrimp imports are set to decline in 2024 from the world's two largest markets, China and the United States, despite record low prices, according to forecasts released at the Global Shrimp Forum (GSF) in Utrecht, the Netherlands.

China’s shrimp imports will fall 11% year-on-year in 2024 to 933,083t, according to forecasts by Willem van der Pijl, CEO of the Global Shrimp Forum Foundation, which organized the event.

In Q2, China imported 228,889t worth $1.14bn, down 32% in value and 19% in volume. Compared to the previous quarter, Q2 was down 7% in volume and value. China’s imports from India increased 9% in the first half of 2024. But imports from Ecuador fell 9% in volume, with lower prices.

For the United States, Van der Pijl forecasts shrimp imports will fall 3% to 764,962t. This will be the third year of declines in shrimp imports since reaching 896,686t in 2021 amid increased retail demand due to COVID.

US importers are predicting a difficult October and November as usual before demand picks up during the holiday season.

However, there are signs of a recovery in demand as shipping delays and disruptions caused by the Red Sea crisis have reduced inventories and buyers are looking to make up the slack.

Meanwhile, in Europe, average prices are also at all-time lows, but at least imports are increasing. European imports are forecast to increase by 3% to 330,337t by 2024. The overall trend is for imports to decline from Asia and shift to Latin America, particularly Ecuador and Venezuela.

Import Shifts from US Tariffs

While imports from the US have been steadily declining year-over-year, there has been some volatility in supplier volumes due to the US preliminary antidumping and countervailing duty (CVD) duties.

Gabriel Luna, an Ecuadorian shrimp buyer, said Ecuador had been gaining market share from India in 2023 and the first few months of 2024, but that has changed as its exports to the US have been affected by the tariffs.

US shrimp imports from Ecuador have a preliminary CVD duty of 2.89% on top of the 10.58% antidumping duty, and the duty has certainly impacted exports to that market. The duty is due to be reviewed in early October 2024, but the shift in exports has already occurred.

In the first few months of the duty, Ecuador’s exports dropped from 45 million pounds per month to around 30-33 million pounds. As a result, shrimp exports to the United States have decreased by 35%. However, the United States still imports just over 20% of Ecuador's total shrimp exports.

China Buys Cautiously

Resnik of Roda, a GSF board member, said that in China, the country’s difficult economic situation has made buyers more cautious.

Importers in China are shifting to a less risky strategy. Instead of buying in large volumes, they are now buying in small batches.

Meanwhile, although Indian black tiger shrimp has gained market share, the total volume has not increased significantly. The same is true for Chinese black tiger shrimp production.

Resnik predicts that demand will increase during the upcoming Chinese holiday season, but market conditions will not change significantly.

EU market stable, demand shifts to Latin America

In Europe, imports are up slightly, but there is a much more pronounced shift in supply from Asia to Latin America.

European imports from South and Central America are up 10% in the first half of 2024, while Asia is down 10%.

Imports from Asia are also down in 2023, while imports from South and Central America are up. Ecuador and Venezuela are the main suppliers and continue to gain market share from other countries.

Imports from Asia, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and all other Asian suppliers are down.

According to the commercial director of a large Dutch processor, more and more European end buyers are asking suppliers to switch from Asian shrimp to Latin American shrimp due to sustainability concerns.

Transport difficulties are also causing imports from Asia to fall. There are many problems with the supply of containers from Asia. Then there is the tight control of Indian shrimp to Europe.

Source: VASEP