Import and export have gone through 3/4 of the year with a picture of many fresh colors. It is forecasted that import and export will reach a record of 800 billion USD this year.

Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh - Economic expert had an interview with reporters of Industry and Trade Newspaper about this issue.

Sir, although we have only passed 3/4 of the year, the import-export picture is considered to have many fresh colors. How do you comment on this result?

The General Statistics Office has just announced a report showing that the preliminary export turnover of goods in September 2024 reached 34.05 billion USD, down 9.9% compared to the previous month and up 10.7% compared to the same period last year. In the first 9 months of 2024, the preliminary export turnover of goods reached 299.63 billion USD, up 15.4% over the same period last year. Of which, the domestic economic sector reached 83.47 billion USD, up 20.7%, accounting for 27.9% of the total export turnover; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached 216.16 billion USD, up 13.4%, accounting for 72.1%.

On the other hand, the preliminary import turnover of goods in September 2024 reached 31.76 billion USD, down 5.9% compared to the previous month and up 11.1% compared to the same period last year. In the first 9 months of 2024, the preliminary import turnover of goods reached 278.84 billion USD, up 17.3% over the same period last year, of which the domestic economic sector reached 100.85 billion USD, up 18.8%; the foreign-invested sector reached 177.99 billion USD, up 16.5%.

Regarding the import and export market of goods in the first 9 months of 2024, the United States is Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of 89.5 billion USD. China is Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of 105 billion USD. The preliminary trade balance of goods in September was a surplus of 2.29 billion USD. In the first nine months of 2024, the preliminary trade balance of goods had a trade surplus of 20.79 billion USD.

It can be seen that in 2024, businesses are preparing orders for import-export activities as well as production and business better. The picture of import-export of goods in the first 9 months of 2024 shows that the following month is higher than the previous month and the following quarter is higher than the previous quarter. The average growth rate in exports in the first 9 months of 2024 is about 15.5%; import growth is about 17%.

Thus, Vietnam's import-export activities are showing a positive trend. If we can maintain the current growth rate or higher in the fourth quarter of 2024, we will have a new milestone in import-export turnover. This will contribute to promoting economic growth in 2024 at a higher level.

Although there are still problems in import-export activities or market adaptation, it is clear that businesses are trying their best to meet the requirements of importers. The Ministry of Industry and Trade and relevant agencies have also closely monitored the situation with trade offices and embassies to support businesses in understanding the market, grasping changes and meeting import and export requirements in the best way. This is clearly a bright spot in the import and export picture for the first 9 months as well as in 2024.

You just made a statement that we will absolutely have a new milestone in import-export turnover in 2024. What is the specific number and what is the reason for you to give this number?

In my opinion, with the current order situation and looking at the acceleration of input material imports, if businesses make efforts from now until the end of the year, in 2024, Vietnam will likely reach the 800 billion USD import-export mark, far exceeding the record of 732 billion USD in 2022.

The reason I can give this figure is based on the fact that Vietnam's import-export activities have achieved many positive results, in which major markets such as the United States, EU, Japan, and South Korea have all seen high growth.

In addition, at this time, the business community is determined to boost export growth in the last quarter of the year, making the most of market advantages, especially new-generation Free Trade Agreements (FTAs).

On the other hand, the demand of import markets at the end of the year with many big festivals is still increasing and this is beneficial for export growth in the remaining quarter, especially for the garment, footwear, electronics and agriculture, forestry and fishery industries...

The openness of Vietnam's economy has also increased rapidly from 120% to nearly 200% of GDP in more than 10 years, making the Vietnamese economy vulnerable and very sensitive to external fluctuations. What is the solution for sustainable export enterprises, especially small and medium enterprises, sir?

For sustainable exports, businesses themselves must be stable and develop sustainably. Therefore, the quality of their products must be guaranteed. Each business must focus on pioneering and exemplary, thereby ensuring that branded goods penetrate deeply into the export market.

Only then can we get orders and be able to grow and develop sustainable exports. On that basis, we can continue the process of expanding relations with countries with which we have signed FTAs, thereby making the most of the benefits brought by FTAs.

In the long run, attracting consumers and capturing the domestic market with a population of 100 million is also a problem that Vietnamese businesses must consider, because currently the Vietnamese market has a large demand for high-quality Vietnamese products.

In the new context, import and export activities require ensuring harmony between growth goals, economic development, social stability and environmental improvement. What is your comment on this opinion?

To develop sustainably, we must have a better economic environment. Therefore, although we aim for faster and higher growth and consider it as an indicator to promote production and business as well as the capacity in the economy to develop in the best way, it is clear that sustainable development is also an issue that we need to pay attention to.

Therefore, maintaining macroeconomic indicators, from our efforts to keep inflation below the level set by the National Assembly, as well as how to ensure the balance between fiscal and monetary policies, ensuring the value of VND with other foreign currencies, especially with the USD, is one of the requirements.

This is also the basis for businesses and policy makers to develop the socio-economy in 2025 and the following years in a better way. Therefore, maintaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring major balances in the economy is very important.

Thank you!

Source: Cong Thuong Newspaper