In the first 9 months, exports were a bright spot in Vietnam's economy. Export potential in the last month of 2024 is huge.

Exports continue to be a bright spot in the economic picture.

In the first 9 months of 2024, the total export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products reached 46.28 billion USD, an increase of 21%. The export turnover of the industry's key agricultural products was higher than the same period last year.

Specifically, in the first 9 months, Vietnam earned nearly 4.4 billion USD from coffee exports, an increase of 40% over the same period last year thanks to high prices. Notably, the export price of coffee has continuously increased. In September, the average price reached 5,469 USD per ton, the highest level ever. In the first 9 months, the average export price of each ton of coffee reached 3,897 USD per ton, an increase of 56% over the same period last year. Coffee has become the agricultural product with the strongest price increase among Vietnam's key export products.

Regarding the positive results in the export picture, the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association said that in the first 9 months of 2024, fruit and vegetable exports reached nearly 5.7 billion USD, a record high, of which durian alone earned 2.5 billion USD.

“Vietnamese fruits and vegetables are increasingly asserting their position in demanding markets such as the United States, China and South Korea. In particular, Chinese consumers increasingly favor Vietnamese durian, banana and mango,” said Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, adding that thanks to the growth of major markets such as China, the United States and South Korea, our country's fruit and vegetable exports will reach 7 billion USD this year.

Along with coffee and fruits and vegetables, pepper is also a bright spot. By the end of the third quarter of 2024, pepper exports reached 203,000 tons, earning more than 1 billion USD, down 1.5% in volume but up 46.9% in value. The reason is that the export price of pepper increased sharply by 49.2% compared to the same period last year, to 4,941 USD/ton. Mr. Phan Minh Thong - Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company - said that Vietnam is a major spice supplier worldwide. 'We have a big 'gold mine' and I think the price will fluctuate in the next 5 years,' Mr. Thong said.

Despite facing many challenges, the textile and garment group still maintained its performance when it brought in more than 32.4 billion USD, up 9% over the same period. Mr. Vu Duc Giang - Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association said that in the remaining time, textile and garment exports are expected to earn more than 4 billion USD each month. Thus, the total export turnover of textile and garment products is expected to earn more than 41 billion USD.

In the footwear sector, Ms. Phan Thi Thanh Xuan - Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Leather, Footwear and Handbag Association - informed that with the current growth rate, the footwear and handbag industry is expected to reach 26 - 27 billion USD in export turnover in 2024.

Wide export potential for the last months of the year

According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, in the first 9 months of 2024, the total import-export value of the whole country reached 578.47 billion USD, an increase of 16.3% over the same period in 2023, of which exports reached 299.63 billion USD, an increase of 15.4% and imports reached 278.84 billion USD, an increase of 17.3%. The trade balance in the first 9 months of 2024 had a trade surplus of 20.79 billion USD.

Up to this point, Vietnam has nearly 50 commodity groups with an export turnover of billions of USD. The results are from the efforts of businesses themselves, the participation of authorities and trade policies from key exporting countries.

“We maintain a positive assessment of Vietnam's export prospects from now until the end of the year,” Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macro and Market Strategy, VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company - shared and analyzed that, firstly, the US's imposition of import tariffs on Chinese goods is boosting exports from ASEAN countries, including Vietnam. Data shows that the US market led in export growth in the first 8 months of this year with an increase of up to 26% over the same period. Second, investment flows from Singapore, Hong Kong (China) and China also grew positively, showing that the trend of shifting production to Vietnam is being promoted.

Third, the global monetary easing cycle, led by major commercial banks in the US, Europe and China, will boost consumption in these markets, thereby increasing demand for Vietnam's export products. In addition, the cooling inflation in many parts of the world also contributed to the improvement in consumption. Fourth, the macroeconomic data in recent months on IIP, PMI, export orders, disbursed FDI, etc. also revealed a positive export picture in the last months of 2024.

Expecting that Vietnam's export turnover this year could grow by about 15% over the same period, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh predicted that some groups of goods will make a breakthrough in exports, including agricultural products, seafood, textiles, footwear due to orders shifting to Vietnam and the low base level of the same period in 2023. In addition, other goods such as electronic components, computers, machinery and equipment, means of transport will maintain a positive growth trend in the fourth quarter of this year thanks to the improvement of the global economic picture and investment environment after a series of recent monetary policy easing moves.

Sharing the same view on this issue, according to Yuanta Securities Company, from now until the end of the year, there will be many favorable macro factors for Vietnam's import and export to recover and accelerate. Many industries will benefit from this momentum such as rubber, textiles, seafood, seascapes, etc.

“Domestic rubber enterprises will benefit from the increase in prices on the world market. For the textile and garment industry, many enterprises' export orders continue to be filled due to the cooling down of political tensions in Bangladesh. However, the formation of a new Government will take a long time to stabilize, which will cause garment enterprises to transfer part of their orders to other countries to minimize risks and it is expected that Vietnam will benefit from the shift of orders from Bangladesh. Meanwhile, US garment inventories are still low compared to 2022,” said an expert from Yuanta Securities.

Despite many favorable factors and support from many factors, there are still unpredictable challenges affecting businesses' export activities from now until the end of the year.

Accordingly, geopolitical competition between major countries can cause disruptions in the global value chain, thereby having negative impacts on Vietnam's production and export activities. In addition, the issue of sea freight rates potentially heating up again will also have a significant impact on the import and export activities of enterprises.

Being cautious and always having backup plans to ensure maintaining the export rhythm from now until the end of the year is the solution that enterprises are proposing at this time. In addition, enterprises are also proactively expanding markets and diversifying supply chains to minimize risks and impacts from being too focused on a certain market or supplier.

Source: Cong Thuong Newspaper