The global tilapia market is growing strongly, with production expected to reach more than 7 million tonnes by 2025. China, Indonesia and Brazil are the leading producers. However, supply and demand are volatile, especially in the US, where imports have declined due to limited supplies from Colombia and Brazil. In contrast, China and Indonesia have maintained stable exports. Tilapia prices have been volatile, with declines in Brazil and the US due to oversupply. The market has been affected by US-China trade tensions, with the US imposing a 45% tariff on Chinese seafood, forcing importers to source from Southeast Asia. Despite the challenges, the tilapia industry still has a positive outlook thanks to steady demand from Asia and new markets.

Global Tilapia Production

Tilapia production is forecast to reach over 7 million tonnes in 2024 and remain stable through 2025. China, the largest tilapia producer, is forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2024 to 1.7 million tonnes and is expected to reach over 1.8 million tonnes in 2025. Indonesia is forecast to produce 1.6 million tonnes in 2025, while Egypt is recovering strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Supply-demand and trade dynamics

Despite increased production, tilapia supply and demand remain volatile. In the United States, fresh tilapia fillet imports fell by 18% in volume and 5% in value in September 2024. China remains the leading exporter, despite a decline in total volumes to the United States. Indonesia records 21% increase in tilapia exports in 9M 2024.

New regulations in China

Guangdong authorities tighten regulations, requiring processing plants to only buy tilapia from farms with export certification from 15/2/2025. Hainan, a major production hub, exported 14,836 tons of frozen tilapia fillets in 11M 2024.

Price movements

In Brazil, tilapia prices fell due to oversupply, but exports increased by 8.1% in October 2024. In the US, fresh fillet prices fell to just over $4/lb due to weak demand and stable supply.

Market outlook

The tilapia market faces falling demand in the United States and trade barriers. China has imposed a 45% tariff on frozen tilapia destined for the US market, forcing the country to adapt. US importers may turn to Vietnam, Indonesia or Thailand. However, as these countries do not have enough production, the US may increase pangasius imports instead.

Despite many challenges, demand for tilapia in Asia and new markets remains strong, promising future growth potential.

Source: VASEP