The fruit supply continuously increases while consumption, processing, and exports have not kept pace, causing the prices of many commodities to instantly drop low upon entering the harvest season.

Many domestic fruits such as Thai jackfruit, king mandarin, durian, and rambutan have simultaneously plunged in price, leaving farmers confronting the risk of losses. The equation of supply exceeding demand, weak processing, and export difficulties continues to be the bottleneck of this commodity sector.

Looking straight at reality

Mr. Tran Van Minh—residing in Thanh Phu commune, Dong Thap province—stated that super-early Thai jackfruit growers have never encountered such difficulties as currently when purchasing prices have dropped deeply.

According to Mr. Minh, at this point, traders only buy grade-1 jackfruit at the orchard for about 6,000 VND/kg, and grade-2 for about 5,000 VND/kg. This price level is much lower than investment costs. To plant, care for, treat for fruiting, and harvest, people must spend more than 10,000 VND/kg just to break even, not including labor and risks during the production process," Mr. Minh said.

He stated that during the period prior to 2024, Thai jackfruit once brought in quite high income when selling prices fluctuated between 25,000 and 40,000 VND/kg. Attractive profit expectations prompted many households to boldly expand areas. However, when the supply increased rapidly while the consumption market encountered difficulties, jackfruit prices continuously plummeted from 2025 until now, pushing many orchard owners into a losing scenario.

Not only Thai jackfruit, but many other fruits have also fallen into a similar situation. King mandarin was once likened to a "billionaire tree" when selling prices reached 25,000-30,000 VND/kg, but for about the past 3 years, it has continuously lost value, at times hitting only 2,000 VND/kg at the orchard.

Mr. Nguyen Van Muoi, Chairman of the Tropical Agricultural Business Club, assessed that the price plateau of many fruits this year is lower than the same period last year, such as: Ri 6 durian in Dong Nai currently stands at only 30,000 VND/kg while last year it was 35,000-36,000 VND/kg; rambutan also fell from the level of 25,000 VND/kg to around 17,000-18,000 VND/kg. A number of fruits like jackfruit and king mandarin have maintained low prices from the beginning of the year until now.

The largest cause lies in the fact that output has increased faster than the speed of consumption. Particularly for durian, increasing cultivation areas and tree age mean that output each year can increase by an additional 30%-40%. Meanwhile, domestic purchasing power has not recovered strongly due to citizens tightening spending. In export markets, certain commodities like king mandarin have not opened new markets, while others like jackfruit and durian face snags regarding quality requirements and plant protection drug residues.

Besides, fruit and vegetable processing capacity currently remains limited and technology is not yet modern, so the consumption capability is not commensurate with output. "There needs to be policies encouraging enterprises to invest in fruit and vegetable processing regarding land, interest rates, and support for building raw material areas to guarantee stable supply sources for factories, avoiding the situation of investing hundreds of billions of VND but lacking operational raw materials," Mr. Muoi proposed.

He also noted that farmers need to comply with production processes, ensuring there are no plant protection drug residues to satisfy the increasingly strict standards of export markets. Concurrently, the State needs to continue negotiating to open more markets for many of Vietnam's potential fruits.

Reorganizing production and markets

Mr. Trinh Thanh Tung, Director of Dang Khoi Agricultural Products Company Limited, argued that the time close to the Mid-Year Festival (Tết Đoan Ngọ) is the main harvest season for many fruits, so a price decrease is understandable. Besides, favorable weather means that the fruit supply from Vietnam as well as Thailand and China has increased, creating major competitive pressure on the market.

Regarding durian specifically, due to export difficulties, a large volume of goods has turned back to domestic consumption, leading to a situation of clearance sales and price cuts.

According to Mr. Tung, seed quality is also an important factor deciding the selling price. Many orchard owners accidentally bought non-standard seeds, so the fruit bears low quality and is difficult to consume. "Orchards possessing experience and systematic investment usually evade the peak harvest time to sell at better prices. To sell at high prices, fruit must be delicious and clean, requiring growers to invest in meticulous care," Mr. Tung shared.

Meanwhile, a representative of a fruit exporting enterprise in Can Tho City argued that the "good harvest, low price" situation stems from production still lacking linkages with the market. Many farmers expanded areas following high-price signals but have not forecasted demand, leading to supply exceeding demand when entering the harvest season.

According to this enterprise, the preservation, deep processing, and branding stages remain limited, causing the majority of fruit to depend on the fresh market. Therefore, it is necessary to reorganize growing zones and increase linkages among farmers, cooperatives, and enterprises to control output, raise quality, and expand export markets.

Latest figures

According to the latest report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in May 2026, Vietnam's fruit and vegetable export value reached 630 million USD. China continues to be the largest consumer market, accounting for 49.6% of the total fruit and vegetable export turnover. The next two large markets are the US and South Korea with market shares of 8.7% and 5.4% respectively.

Taking the first 5 months of 2026 as a whole, fruit and vegetable exports to China increased by 31.4% year-on-year. Exports to the US rose by 16% and the South Korean market increased by 9.1%.

Notably, within the group of the 15 largest export markets, Cambodia recorded the strongest growth when its turnover increased by 3.6 times. Conversely, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) unexpectedly dropped sharply by 42.3%.

Durian continues to be the core commodity of the fruit and vegetable sector. Thanks to the advantage of off-season harvesting, along with China approving more growing area codes and deploying the Protocol on exporting frozen durian, the export turnover of this commodity during the first 5 months of the year increased by 59.7% compared to the same period last year.

Besides, many other items also recorded positive results, such as: pistachio exports reached 224.63 million USD, up more than 204%; coconut and coconut products reached 198.38 million USD, up nearly 15%. Fruits like dragon fruit, jackfruit, and passion fruit continue to benefit from stable demand in major markets like China, the US, and South Korea.

Source: CafeF