Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable industry entered 2025 with high expectations. However, in the first quarter alone, the export turnover decreased by more than 13%. This development not only reflects short-term difficulties, but also warns of the imbalance between the growth rate and the ability of the agricultural industry to meet international standards.

The “bottleneck” of quality

With impressive results in 2024, setting an export record of more than 7 billion USD, the Vietnamese fruit and vegetable industry started 2025 with many expectations that it would continue to maintain its momentum. However, the reality of the first 3 months of the year showed clear signs of slowing down. According to the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, the estimated export turnover of fruits and vegetables in the first quarter of 2025 was only about 1.1 billion USD, down 13.2% over the same period last year.

Notably, the decline occurred continuously in the first 3 months of the year: January reached 416 million USD (down 5.2%), February reached 303 million USD (down 6.5%) and March continued to decrease sharply by 10.5%. This is a period when there is usually high demand in Asian markets thanks to the Lunar New Year, but the turnover still decreased, showing that the cause is not simply due to seasonal factors.

The main reason for the decline in fruit and vegetable exports in the first quarter of 2025 comes from the Chinese market - a partner that accounts for more than 66% of the total industry turnover. Of which, durian, a staple product that brought in more than 2.2 billion USD in 2024, has gone from being a growth driver to becoming the biggest bottleneck.

Entering 2025, China has simultaneously applied strict control measures to 100% of imported durian batches. The indicators on cadmium residue and yellow O have become mandatory conditions for customs clearance. The tightening of testing has made many Vietnamese businesses passive and confused in the preparation of technical documents. As a result, a series of shipments have had their customs clearance time extended, and some shipments even had to cancel their contracts or return them.

Therefore, a number of durian exporting enterprises have had to temporarily suspend transactions with this market since the beginning of the quarter. The disruption not only causes a backlog of goods, but also leads to major consequences for finances, contracts, labor and production plans for the entire season.

Market factors

This incident shows the high dependence of Vietnamese fruits and vegetables on a single market. When the “pillar” China is tightened, the whole industry almost loses its footing. Meanwhile, higher value markets such as the EU, Japan, Korea, and the US - which have stable demand and are willing to pay for quality agricultural products - have not been effectively exploited. The main reasons come from technical barriers, strict quarantine requirements, and demands for traceability, post-harvest preservation, and standardized growing areas, factors that most Vietnamese businesses are still weak at.

To achieve the goal of sustainable exports, it is necessary to quickly overcome weaknesses in the organization of the industry chain and improve quality control capacity.

Agricultural expert Dr. Nguyen Thi Hien said that the current challenges come not only from China but also from many other major markets in the world. Importing countries are simultaneously tightening technical barriers, especially standards on maximum pesticide residue limits (MRLs), plant quarantine and food hygiene and safety. Ms. Hien emphasized that meeting requirements related to pests, heavy metals and MRLs is the biggest barrier for Vietnamese fruits and vegetables on the way to conquering the international market. At the same time, to move towards the goal of sustainable exports, it is necessary to quickly overcome weaknesses in the organization of the industry chain, improve quality control capacity and invest in agricultural logistics infrastructure.

Some experts in the industry believe that 2024 will be favorable thanks to the official opening of the door from China, but after that achievement is the "phase difference" between export growth and quality control capacity. Many businesses still operate according to the “buy-sell” model, without proper investment in standard raw material areas, and without an internationally standardized testing system. Some units do not even fully understand important indicators such as cadmium or gold O, which can cause the entire shipment to be rejected even after it has been packaged and transported to the border gate. When the market changes regulations consistently, Vietnam’s supply chain falls into a passive position, lacking a quick response plan and a lack of technical infrastructure to control risks.

Efforts to "raise standards"

The decline in export turnover in the first quarter of 2025 is a misstep that needs to be pondered. It clearly reflects the fact that behind the spectacular growth figure of 2024 is a growth model that depends on opportunities rather than internal strength. Growth based on a "easy" market in favorable times makes the industry vulnerable to being passive when the market reverses. What is worrying is that sustainability has not been improved: Lack of investment in post-harvest technology, lack of coordination between businesses, farmers, management agencies and the ability to quickly adapt to increasingly strict technical barriers from international markets.

In this context, the problem for the fruit and vegetable industry is not to lobby for loosening of regulations from partners, but to raise its own standards. First of all, it is necessary to focus on standardization from the root: Raw material areas must be controlled, have transparent growing area codes, have standard packaging facilities and a testing system capable of meeting the standards of demanding markets. Preservation technology, deep processing and logistics need to be invested synchronously to increase value and reduce post-harvest losses. In addition, the industry needs to restructure the export market towards diversification, reduce dependence on one country, focus on areas with FTAs ​​with Vietnam such as the EU, Korea, Australia to stabilize output and increase brand value.

Along with that, it is necessary to establish an early warning system on technical barriers, strengthen the role of industry associations in disseminating import regulations, support businesses to update new standards and access the market strategically. From the management agency's side, it is necessary to shorten the process of granting growing area codes, encourage investment in residue analysis, and control food safety according to international standards on the spot instead of waiting for feedback from the importing country to make adjustments.

The first quarter of 2025 is a setback, but it is also an opportunity for the entire fruit and vegetable industry to look back at itself. If we continue to follow the old path of depending on easy-going markets and not standardizing production processes, the Vietnamese fruit and vegetable industry will forever be in a state of "fluctuation" - soaring one year, plummeting the next. In the context of increasingly fierce regional competition and increasingly high global standards, this not only poses risks to businesses but also loses great opportunities for an industry that is considered to have the leading export potential in Vietnam.

The solution to stop the decline in fruit exports is to maintain a good position in the largest market. Farmers are adjusting production, businesses are perfecting and meeting quarantine regulations for durian.

Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, advised: "We have an important position in the Chinese market, now we must ensure production according to market requirements. Businesses are also gradually getting into order, exporting goods must also be thoroughly checked for Cadmium, O-yellow, to be able to export".

In addition to the Chinese market, businesses are also trying to diversify export markets. The statistical chart shows that 4/5 of the top markets for Vietnamese fruits still have a lot of room for growth. Last year, fresh coconut officially went to China, grapefruit to Korea, this year, this list is expected to have passion fruit to the US, lychee to approach Korea.

Mr. Nguyen Trong Trung Dung, Deputy General Director of Yasaka Fruit Processing Company, said: "The prices we sell in foreign markets are relatively stable, without much fluctuation. Not only the Japanese or Korean markets, but other markets such as the US, Australia, and New Zealand are also strategic markets for Yasaka".

The Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association believes that the target of 8 billion USD this year will become much more challenging. Therefore, Vietnamese fruits and vegetables will have to maintain the pace with the staple product durian. At the same time, continuously expand new products and markets to maintain the growth target./.

Source: Kinh Te Nong Thon Newspaper