The FAO report shows that the global shrimp market in 2024 will have an imbalance between supply and demand. China's imports will decrease by 6.54%, while Ecuador - the largest shrimp exporter - will face difficulties due to weak demand and low prices. The US also reduced imports by 3.17% due to slowing consumption, high inventories and increased import tariffs. Meanwhile, the EU remained stable, while Japan increased imports by 8.33%. The trend of shrimp farming in Asia is changing, with many countries switching to black tiger shrimp in search of higher profits. The FAO forecasts that the industry's growth will slow down in 2025, with many adjustments needed to adapt.

According to the latest World Shrimp Market Outlook published by Globefish, a subsidiary of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the global shrimp market is expected to lose its supply-demand balance by 2024. Although Ecuador remains the leading exporter, its export growth has slowed due to lower demand from China and the United States, low market prices, and power supply issues. Meanwhile, the Asian market saw strong demand during the Lunar New Year, but overall imports declined throughout the year, especially in the Chinese market, where imports fell by 6.54%. Consumption in the US market is weak, imports are falling, and the EU market is relatively stable. Looking ahead, the growth rate of the global shrimp processing industry may slow down and the industry will seek to adapt and recover.

Global Supply Model: Asia Adjusts Livestock Model, Ecuador's Exports Fall Short of Expectations

The FAO report found that shrimp demand in the world’s two largest markets, China and the United States, is expected to be stable or below year-ago levels in 2024. Combined with continued weakness in international prices, global whiteleg shrimp aquaculture production remains largely unchanged from 2023 levels.

It is worth noting that farming patterns in South Asia and Southeast Asia are changing. As whiteleg shrimp prices have failed to recover significantly, some farmers in China, India, Malaysia and Vietnam have switched to black tiger shrimp farming in search of higher market returns. Vietnam’s black tiger shrimp and whiteleg shrimp aquaculture production is expected to increase by 3% and 6% in 2024, reaching 290,000 tonnes and 894,900 tonnes, respectively.

On the other hand, growth in Ecuador, the world’s largest shrimp exporter, fell short of expectations in 2024. Ecuador’s 2024 exports are expected to fall short of the previously projected 1.5 million tonnes due to unstable electricity supplies, low market prices, and reduced import demand from China and the United States.

Brazil’s shrimp industry is growing strongly, with annual production stable at 210,000–220,000 tonnes, but mainly supplying the domestic market. Although the country is still much smaller than Ecuador, the industry is expected to grow by 10% by 2024, making it a formidable competitor in Latin America in the future.

Global trade dynamics: demand from China and the United States declines, while imports from some Asia-Pacific countries increase

According to the FAO, global shrimp imports in the period from January to September 2024 reached around 2.6 million tonnes, down 3.4% year-on-year, reflecting weak overall market demand.

China: Imports down 6.54%, demand temporarily increases during Lunar New Year

China's shrimp imports in 2024 decreased by 6.54% to 1.071 million tons. Due to the impact of the economic downturn, Chinese consumers' spending on high-quality aquatic products has decreased, especially in the second half of 2024. Except for the Lunar New Year (January-February 2025), overall demand has weakened.

During the Lunar New Year, the prices of black tiger shrimp, South American whiteleg shrimp, and marine shrimp (such as marine black tiger shrimp, flower shrimp, and banana shrimp) increased by 20-30%, mainly due to the demand of catering businesses. However, this growth only had a short-term impact and did not reverse the downward import trend during the year.

US: Weak consumption, imports down 3.17% year-on-year

The FAO report noted that the volume of imports into the US market in 2024 fell to 763,400 tonnes, down 3.17% year-on-year. The main reasons were weak consumer demand and domestic inventories, especially large inventories from last year that had not been fully utilized, leading to a decrease in imports.

In 2024, the three largest shrimp suppliers to the US were India, Ecuador and Indonesia, but exports from these three countries to the US all decreased. Notably, Vietnam was the only major supplier to the US to see export growth, mainly due to sales of higher value-added shrimp products.

Additionally, in February 2025, the US government announced additional tariffs on imports from China, including increasing tariffs on shrimp products from 25% to 35%, which may further impact future US import trends.

EU: Stable Market, Slightly Increased Imports

In contrast, the EU market showed relatively stable results in 2024. The FAO report noted that from January to October 2024, imports into the main EU markets (Spain, France, the Netherlands, Germany, etc.) increased by 2.6% year-on-year to 695,500 tonnes. Of these, imports from Spain, Germany and Portugal increased, while imports from Belgium, Denmark, France and Italy decreased.

Asia-Pacific: Imports from non-producing countries increased, demand from the Japanese market was strong

In the Asia-Pacific region, shrimp imports from non-producing countries increased. Of these, market demand in Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Taiwan and Singapore was relatively stable.

Japan remains an important consumer market for high value-added shrimp products. In the first three quarters of 2024, Japan's imports increased by 8.33% year-on-year to 195,500 tons, of which about 28% (56,000 tons) were deeply processed shrimp products, mainly from China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.

As the 2025 Lunar New Year (29/1 - 15/2) approaches, demand from the food service industry in East Asia and Southeast Asia increases, leading to an increase in shrimp prices. The next peak in the Japanese market is expected to occur during the Lunar New Year from April to May.

Price trends and future prospects

The FAO report notes that shrimp prices have increased in Asia-Pacific markets during the Lunar New Year in 2024, but overall growth remains within reasonable limits. As Lunar New Year is one of the most important holidays for East Asian consumers, they are willing to pay higher prices for high-quality seafood during this festive season.

Looking ahead, the FAO believes that the global shrimp market continues to face a number of challenges, including:

• Asian aquaculture production will remain low in the short term: The Asian shrimp season starts in late February 2025, but March supplies from Indonesia and southern Thailand will be affected by Ramadan.
• Growth in Ecuador is slowing: The country's shrimp industry is expected to grow from 14% to 3% annually by 2024, mainly due to lower demand from China.
• US tariff policy affects trade patterns: The 35% tariff on Chinese shrimp products is expected to encourage Chinese companies to switch to markets such as the EU and Japan, which could lead to increased exports to these markets.
• Brazil could become a new exporter: its shrimp industry is expected to grow by 10% by 2024 and could rival Ecuador if it continues to develop its export activities in the future.

Overall, the FAO report notes that the global shrimp market will be in a period of slow growth adjustment by 2025 and major exporting countries need to adjust their strategies in line with market developments to cope with the challenging global trade environment.

Source: VASEP