The Vietnam Trade Office in the United States recognizes that rapid growth in the United States requires Vietnamese businesses to pay more attention to complying with trade regulations, avoiding the risk of being sued, investigated, and applying trade defense measures, tax evasion, and other restrictions that the United States may impose to support domestic production.

Immediately after Mr. Donald Trump stepped onto the podium to take the oath of office, officially becoming the 47th President of the United States, Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, Trade Counselor, Vietnam Trade Office in the United States, had an exchange with the Government Electronic Newspaper about the forecast, security, economic and foreign policies of the United States during President Donald Trump's term.

Mr. Hung said that the new President Donald Trump's executive policies will focus on responding to inflation, trade deficit, handling immigration issues, protecting workers from unfair trade competition, and handling social, educational and health issues.

Agricultural, forestry and fishery exports are a bright spot

Regarding trade, according to the US Department of Commerce (announced on December 5, 2024), the total import and export turnover of US goods in the first 10 months of 2024 reached 4.432 billion USD (up 2.7% over the same period in 2023), of which imports were about 2.708 billion USD, exports were 1.724 billion USD, and trade deficit reached 1,000 billion USD.

Statistics from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) also showed that the total two-way trade turnover between Vietnam and the US in the first 10 months of 2024 reached 112 billion USD, Vietnam's trade surplus reached 102 billion USD, an increase of about 26% over the same period (accounting for 29.5% of Vietnam's total export turnover and 10% of the US's total trade deficit).

However, according to Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, exports from the United States to Vietnam increased by nearly 30% to reach 10 billion USD, but data shows that the trade deficit from Vietnam ranked 3rd after China and Mexico. Vietnam's export turnover accounts for 30% of the total export turnover of the ASEAN bloc. A bright spot in Vietnam-US trade relations, by the end of October 2024, agricultural, forestry and fishery exports to the US reached about 12.3 billion USD, accounting for 21.7% of Vietnam's total agricultural, forestry and fishery exports to the world and 10% of total exports to the US, up 24.6% in value over the same period in 2023.

The Vietnam Trade Office in the US recognizes that rapid growth in the US requires Vietnamese businesses to pay more attention to complying with trade regulations, avoiding the risk of being sued, investigated and applying trade defense measures, tax evasion as well as other restrictions that the US may impose to support domestic production.

The US will prioritize bilateral cooperation with each partner.

According to information from the trade deal, 2024 is the presidential election year, and all parties are trying to campaign for more votes, so the US policy is more protectionist. In addition to the significant increase in trade defense measures (10 cases with Vietnam), the US also strongly implemented the Anti-Forced Labor Act, so Vietnam's export goods will be somewhat affected, possibly returned or delayed in customs clearance, causing prices to increase, reducing competitive advantages.

According to Mr. Peter Navarro, who was appointed as the US senior economic and production advisor, he has a view calling on Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Act (USRTA) allowing the US to increase tariffs to reciprocate with countries that impose higher tariffs. The law aims to force trading partners to reduce tariffs with the US and remove non-tariff barriers or the US to increase tariffs accordingly to reflect the tariffs of trading partners.

If the USRTA Act takes effect, according to Navarro's view, the countries prioritized in the negotiation list include: India, China (group 1), then the EU (group 2) along with Thailand, Taiwan (China) and Vietnam (group 3).

Among the trade and industrial measures, the most prominent of which are rebalancing the trade balance, reducing the deficit; considering removing China from the list of most-favored nation (MFN) status; reducing imports of essential goods, it is likely that traditional measures such as increasing tariffs, investigating under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 expanded for national security reasons, increasing tariffs expanded for related countries to limit China's ability to transship goods.

The Vietnam Trade Office in the United States predicts that in the next 4 years, the new US administration is expected to reduce its participation in multilateral economic cooperation models, considering this a negative factor for the development of the country's economy. Instead, the US will prioritize bilateral cooperation with each partner, making it easier to negotiate, manage and implement agreements that ensure economic benefits for the US.

According to many experts, 2025 may continue to be a difficult year for the US economy, with growth rates likely to be low and inflation remaining high. In addition, inflation has not yet returned to the expected level, as well as energy fluctuations as conflicts around the world continue to occur. In addition, according to many analyses, the consumption trend as in the past despite inflation will be difficult to maintain for long and the US people will soon tighten their spending if the situation does not improve.

US officials appreciate Vietnam

Regarding the impacts on Vietnam, the Vietnam Trade Office in the United States said that according to a survey, US officials appreciate Vietnam through upgrading the comprehensive strategic partnership, which is increasingly deepening. Both the United States and Vietnam consider each other as partners of leading strategic importance, with increasingly important positions and roles in the region and internationally.

Generally speaking, in the short term, the implementation of a harmonious, sustainable and mutually beneficial trade balance is becoming increasingly urgent. Vietnam needs to consider its commitment to continue opening its market, speeding up the resolution of recommendations from the US business community, demonstrating Vietnam's commitment to maintaining trade and investment relations between the two countries, in which, with the perspective on traditional energy, cooperation in rare earth mining will open up a lot of room for cooperation between the two countries, especially when looking forward to the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 2025.

On the occasion of Mr. Donald Trump's official inauguration as the 47th President of the United States of America, on January 21 (Hanoi time), General Secretary To Lam, President Luong Cuong and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh sent congratulatory letters.General Secretary To Lam, President Luong Cuong and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh affirmed that Vietnam considers the United States a partner of strategic importance.Based on the progress in the cooperation between the two countries in recent times, General Secretary To Lam, President Luong Cuong and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh believe that with the leadership and support of Mr. Donald Trump, the Vietnam-US relationship will continue to develop steadily on the basis of the principle of respecting each other's independence, sovereignty and political institutions, for peace, stability, cooperation and sustainable development in the region and the world, especially on the occasion of the two countries celebrating the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations (1995-2025) and the 2nd anniversary of the Vietnam-US Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.On the same day, Vice President Vo Thi Anh Xuan also sent a congratulatory letter to Vice President James David Vance.

Source: Government Newspaper