Facing major challenges, agricultural processing and export enterprises need to find a new suitable growth model when entering 2025.

Although agricultural, forestry and fishery exports in 2024 achieved impressive results, they are also facing major challenges in the context of rapid and uncertain global changes and fierce competition. Therefore, entering 2025 requires this key industry group to create new growth momentum with much to do.

A recent report on the prospects of Vietnam's rubber industry in 2025 from the Analysis Department of TPS Securities Company said that the driving force will come from the recovery of China's automobile sales. In particular, China's automobile manufacturing industry still recorded positive growth with promising sales after the government introduced policies to boost the automobile market.

Competition is getting fiercer

In addition, according to TPS, with a series of economic support policies implemented and commitments to implement more stimulus measures in the coming time, there will be expectations that China's economy will recover and grow better, leading to demand for rubber for production activities.

It should be noted that in 2024, China will be Vietnam's largest rubber export market (accounting for over 67%) with mainly a mixture of natural rubber and raw rubber, while the proportion of processed rubber exports is still very low. Therefore, experts believe that in order to create new growth momentum and increase export value in this key market, rubber exporting enterprises need to have a strategy to increase the proportion of processed rubber exports.

According to Mr. Le Thanh Hung, Chairman of the Vietnam Rubber Association (VRA), it is forecasted that the total export turnover of the rubber industry (including natural rubber, rubber products, rubber wood) will reach over 11 billion USD in 2025, an increase of about 10% compared to 2024 (reaching about 10.2 billion USD). However, to achieve this goal, much effort is needed in the context of increasingly fierce competition.

As Mr. Hung noted, meeting environmental protection requirements and improving product quality will help the rubber industry maintain strong growth, affirming its position in the global supply chain.

For example, one of the major challenges for the rubber industry is the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which requires imported products, including rubber, to clearly demonstrate their origin and comply with environmental protection standards.

This is a difficult problem for the Vietnamese rubber industry, which is striving to improve product quality and develop a sustainable brand. Therefore, in 2025, businesses need to invest in production processes and improve traceability capacity to meet the requirements of international markets, especially the EU.

Not only rubber, but also the export of key industrial crops (such as coffee, pepper, cashew) achieved impressive results in 2024, earning billions of USD, but still needs new growth momentum when entering 2025. For example, coffee export turnover in 2024 exceeded the 5 billion USD mark for the first time in history. In 2025, the opportunity to improve the position of Vietnamese coffee in the world market is still very large due to the possibility of a sharp increase in coffee export prices along with the advantage in supply.

However, the Vietnamese coffee industry is expected to continue to face significant challenges and changes in the context of volatile markets and increasing environmental pressures. Therefore, Dr. Devmali Perera (RMIT University) believes that export promotion is an important area of ​​focus. Policies to promote Vietnamese coffee in the international market, including participating in global trade fairs and taking advantage of free trade agreements (FTAs), can increase market access for Vietnamese coffee exports.

According to Dr. Perera, exporting enterprises must be flexible and proactive in their strategies to thrive in the volatile coffee market. The adaptability of Vietnamese coffee producers, along with strong government support and innovative measures, will be the “key” to ensuring long-term success in the global coffee market.

Find the right new growth model

Furthermore, as shared by the RMIT expert, businesses need to pay more attention to exporting specialty coffee and organic coffee, which are gaining attention because these products are becoming increasingly popular globally. In addition, applying strict quality standards and certification processes related to coffee processing is also very important.

Meanwhile, with seafood exports, Mr. Nguyen Hoai Nam, Deputy General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), commented that although the export turnover achieved in 2024 is impressive (reaching over 10 billion USD), it is still facing many major challenges in the context of rapid and uncertain global changes.

In 2025, seafood exports are expected to have the opportunity to reach a turnover of 11 billion USD. However, looking at the target of double-digit export growth (10-15%/year) in the coming time (by 2030 it will reach 14-16 billion USD/year), as Mr. Nam worries, to achieve this goal, the seafood industry not only tries to maintain market share, increase the value-added processing content but also needs to research to have a new suitable growth model.

"Looking from the perspective of the growth of the fruit and vegetable industry, especially durian, the feeling is that seafood exports need new growth drivers in the context of the world being too uncertain and changing rapidly in the digital age", Mr. Nam confided.

Regarding fruit and vegetable exports, after the impressive results of reaching nearly 7.1 billion USD in 2024, it is forecasted that it will bring in more than 8 billion USD in 2025 from many new emerging factors such as frozen durian, fresh coconut exported to China, and passion fruit currently being negotiated with the US for export (it is expected that in 2025, Vietnamese passion fruit will be officially licensed for export to the US market).

However, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Binh, Chairman of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, pointed out that the US-China trade war, global geopolitical conflicts... are still big challenges. In order for this industry to export more sustainably, it is necessary to pay attention to post-harvest technology, improve product quality, and improve business compliance capacity.

In addition, Mr. Binh proposed continuing negotiations to open the market, supporting the development of growing area codes, packaging facility codes, and developing national standards for key fruit and vegetable products.

In general, the impressive export figures of agriculture, forestry and fishery products in 2024 (reaching a record high total turnover of 62.4 billion USD, up 18.5% compared to 2023) have added strength to this key industry group to aim for the goal of increasing turnover to 70 billion USD by 2025. Of course, to achieve the goal, it is necessary to create new growth drivers in the coming time.

Source: VnBusiness