Vietnam's seafood export situation in 2023 will face many difficulties due to the impact of global inflation and economic recession in major markets. However, since the end of 2023, seafood exports have shown signs of recovery and will continue to grow in 2024.

Seafood exports initially showed signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2024

Overview of seafood exports in the period 2023 - 2024

In 2023, Vietnam's seafood industry has faced many difficulties, leading to a significant decrease in exports. Seafood export turnover decreased by 17.8% compared to 2022, reaching only about 9 billion USD. Main products such as shrimp, pangasius, and tuna all decreased by 16-20%. Main export markets such as the US, Japan, China, EU and Korea all decreased by 11 - 28%.

The cause of this decline is high inflation, reduced market demand, and large inventories. Falling export prices along with challenges in domestic production and business also contributed to this negative result.

Export of vannamei shrimp

Forecasting for 2024, the seafood industry has prospects of recovery, with the goal of achieving export turnover from 9.5 to 10 billion USD. The shrimp industry is expected to reach about 4 billion USD, pangasius 1.9 billion USD, and other seafood products from 3.6 to 3.8 billion USD. To achieve this goal, businesses need to make efforts to adapt to market challenges and fluctuations, while seizing opportunities for sustainable development.

The biggest challenge in 2024 is still the removal of the IUU yellow card from the EU, otherwise it will seriously affect exports to this market because the procedures for confirming and certifying exploited seafood still face many shortcomings. ​.

Some typical exported seafood products:

Shrimp export

Vietnam's shrimp exports in 2023 have gone through a difficult period due to many unfavorable factors from the global market and competition from competitors. However, positive signals have appeared in the first 4 months of 2024, with a significant recovery in major markets such as China and the US.

Vietnam's shrimp export turnover in 2023 decreased by 21.5% compared to the previous year, mainly due to inflation, economic crisis, war, excess inventory and reduced consumption demand. Indian and Ecuadorian shrimp also exert great competitive pressure. Shrimp exports increased by 9.8% in the first 4 months of 2024, reaching nearly 974 million USD. China and the US are the two main contributing markets to this recovery.

Whiteleg shrimp exports account for 72% of total export value and have recovered 11% in the first quarter of 2024. Black tiger shrimp exports decreased by 12.6% and accounted for less than 12% of total export value. Raw shrimp export prices are still low compared to the same period last year.

In particular, the US market initially grew thanks to the release of inventory and increased demand. US importers are also tightening controls on Indian and Ecuadorian shrimp due to quality and safety issues.

Exporting pangasius

In the first 3 months of 2024, Vietnam's pangasius export turnover reached 411 million USD, down 2.5% compared to the same period in 2023. This is mainly due to the decline in key markets such as China and the EU. Specifically, China and Hong Kong, the largest pangasius consumption markets, imported 111 million USD in the first quarter of 2024, down 22% compared to the previous year.

In contrast, the US market recorded positive growth with export turnover reaching 64 million USD in the first 3 months of 2024, an increase of nearly 12% over the same period last year. This growth is mainly thanks to export turnover in January and March. The US has surpassed the CPTPP market block to return to its position as the second largest market consuming Vietnamese pangasius.

Pangasius exports to CPTPP markets also increased, reaching 59 million USD in the first quarter of 2024, up 7.6% over the same period last year. Among them, Canada stands out with a growth rate of 43%, although most other countries in the bloc decreased.

However, due to difficulties in exporting from 2023, farmers and businesses have adjusted to reduce farming output. Unfavorable weather also affects fish farming, so it is expected that pangasius raw materials from now until the end of the year will not be abundant.

Despite positive signs, demand in major markets has not recovered strongly. It is forecast that the situation will improve from the third and fourth quarters, accompanied by an increase in export prices of at least 10% compared to the present. Currently, export prices are low, even below production costs. Businesses need to consider appropriate selling prices to ensure profits and meet the needs of each market.

The gradual decrease in inventory pressure on businesses will create opportunities to increase production and fulfill new orders at better prices. The target for pangasius export in 2024 is about 2 billion USD, an increase of 11% compared to 2023.

Exporting seafood

In the first 3 months of 2024, Vietnam's seafood export turnover reached 837 million USD, an increase of 5% over the same period in 2022. Main import markets include Japan, the US, Korea, China & Hong Kong, Thailand and Russia​​.

Tuna export: In March 2024, tuna export turnover reached nearly 84 million USD, an increase of 17%. In the first 3 months of 2024, exports reach 215 million USD, up 19% over the same period in 2023 but 17% lower than in 2022. Main markets include: US, EU, CPTPP bloc, Israel, Russia, Philippines, Korea and Thailand account for 90% of total export turnover. However, exports to Japan decreased by 18%, Mexico decreased by 38%, Chile decreased by 34% and Thailand decreased by 78%, affecting overall growth in March.

Export of squid and octopus: In the first quarter of 2024, export turnover reached 138.5 million USD, equivalent to the same period last year. Squid exports accounted for 53%, down slightly by 2%, while octopus exports accounted for 47%, up 2.5%.

Export of fish paste and surimi: Reached over 61 million USD, down 12% in the first quarter of 2024. Exports to Korea, Thailand, China, and Japan all decreased significantly. The output of raw fish for surimi production is abundant and large inventories put downward pressure on prices.

Crab export: In the first quarter of 2024, export turnover reached 52 million USD, a breakthrough increase of 75%. Crab exports increased by 85%, crab exports increased by 57%. China is the third largest import market, with an import increase of 8.5 times over the same period last year.

Shellfish export: In the first quarter of 2024, export turnover reached over 30 million USD, down nearly 7%. Clam exports decreased by 8%, reaching 18 million USD. Other shellfish such as scallops and snails decreased in export value, but oyster exports increased by 22%.

Vietnam's seafood industry is in the recovery phase after a difficult 2023. However, there are still many challenges to overcome, especially removing the IUU yellow card. Businesses need to adapt to market fluctuations, take advantage of opportunities and improve product quality to achieve their export goals.

Source: Tep Bac