With a key market like the US, whether it will be a “bright spot” in the last months of this year or not is still a question for businesses exporting pangasius and shrimp. While pangasius is predicted to continue to increase orders, Vietnamese shrimp, although having opportunities compared to competitors, still faces difficulties in terms of price, maintaining market share, trade barriers, market fluctuations, etc.

Information released on September 17 from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) said that the preliminary results (POR20) of anti-dumping tax on pangasius fillets to the US with many exporting companies (XK) exempted from the tax.

Pangasius orders will continue to increase

Specifically, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) has conducted an administrative investigation to review the anti-dumping duty order on frozen pangasius fillets from Vietnam for the review period from August 1, 2022 to July 31, 2023 (POR20).

Seafood exporting enterprises need to have solutions to research new products, even respond to each festival and event at the end of the year in the US market.

DOC determined that in this POR20, many pangasius fillet exporters from Vietnam, including Bien Dong and Vinh Hoan, did not dump their products into the US market. Therefore, they will not be subject to any anti-dumping tax. Accordingly, there are 8 pangasius exporting companies eligible for separate tax rates.

With this move, it is expected that pangasius exports to the US will continue to recover in the last months of this year, and orders will continue to increase. In addition, preparations for festivals and year-end holidays also increase consumer demand. In particular, US consumers are also increasing their demand for whitefish products, especially pangasius from Vietnam.

At the same time, the fact that whitefish supplies to the US are decreasing in the context of a shortage of other whitefish products such as tilapia is also a positive signal for Vietnamese pangasius exports to the US market.

VASEP data shows that Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the US in the first eight months of 2024 increased by 23% compared to the same period last year. This is considered a “bright spot” while pangasius exports to another leading market, China, in the past eight months decreased by 3% compared to 2023.

For example, Vinh Hoan Corporation (VHC) is recognized for its pangasius selling price, which has recorded a gradual monthly increase due to the gradual recovery in prices in the US - the company's key market.

Regarding selling prices, thanks to the market gradually entering the holiday season and the stable growth of the US economy, VHC's pangasius export prices to the US in the third quarter of 2024 may increase by 5%, before remaining flat in the fourth quarter of 2024. Although prices may remain flat, they will still be up to 16% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2023 thanks to the low base level.

As for shrimp exports, businesses are expecting US demand for shrimp to increase in the coming months due to increased purchasing power from importers before the year-end holidays. In the US market, Vietnamese whiteleg shrimp may seize the opportunity compared to competitors because Ecuadorian and Indian shrimp are facing warnings about labor and food safety issues.

As reported in mid-September 2024, the US Department of Labor (DOL) added shrimp from India to the 2024 List of Goods Produced with Forced Labor following a petition filed by the Southern Shrimp Alliance (SSA) earlier this year.

Meanwhile, Ecuadorian shrimp exports to the US are being affected by the US's preliminary antidumping and countervailing duty (CVD) duties. Shrimp imported from Ecuador to the US has a preliminary CVD duty of 2.89%, an antidumping duty of 10.58%, and these duties have somewhat affected exports to the US market.

Shrimp still have difficulties

However, the competition of Vietnamese shrimp in the US market with cheap shrimp from Ecuador and India is still full of challenges due to the recent sharp increase in shipping costs. What is more worrying is that the shrimp consumption price of these competitors is very low, even 20% lower than the price of Vietnamese shrimp. This has caused many shrimp exporting enterprises to reduce the proportion of exports to the US and shift to nearby markets with better signals.

In addition, as noted by Mr. Ho Quoc Luc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Sao Ta Food Joint Stock Company (FMC), the shrimp industry still has external difficulties such as price competition. The processing side is also struggling to handle two lawsuits from the plaintiff in the US, in order to maintain market share there.

This is also a common challenge for shrimp exports to the US when they often face the risk of trade defense investigations, anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures, and the application of many non-tariff protection policies.

Not to mention, a new forecast released by the Global Shrimp Forum (GSF) shows that shrimp imports are on track to decline this year in the United States, despite record low prices.

As predicted by Willem van der Pijl, CEO of GSF, US shrimp imports will fall by 3% to 764,962 tonnes in the coming period. This will be the third year of decline in shrimp imports. US importers identify October and November 2024 as difficult as usual before demand picks up during the holiday season.

However, there are signs of a recovery in demand for shrimp imports in the US as delays and disruptions to shipments caused by the Red Sea crisis have reduced inventories and customers are looking to make up for lost sales.

In general, finding a “bright spot” in the US market at the end of the year requires more efforts from seafood processing enterprises. Because, in addition to the fluctuating demand of this market, the problem that needs to be overcome is the competitive factor and trade barriers.

In particular, in terms of the competitive factor, for example, with Vietnamese shrimp, in order to expand its market share in the US compared to Ecuadorian shrimp and Indian shrimp, the cost of shrimp farming must be resolved. Moreover, the seafood export processing stage to the US must be more proactive than ever, such as solutions to research new products, even responding to each festival and event at the end of the year. Seafood exporting enterprises also need to continue to proactively seek new customers in this key market by improving themselves to meet the increasingly stringent requirements of large distribution systems.

Source: VnBusiness