The European Union (EU) and Thailand have entered the next round of negotiations and can move towards signing a Free Trade Agreement (ETFTA). This is expected to increase competitive pressure for Vietnamese tuna products in the EU market.

The position of Vietnamese tuna in the EU

After the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Vietnam (EVFTA) took effect, Vietnam's tuna exports to the EU grew continuously. Export turnover increases from 136 million USD in 2020 to 176 million USD in 2023, an increase of 30%. Entering 2024, exports to this market block will continue to grow positively. By the end of April 2024, tuna export turnover to the EU reached nearly 67 million USD, an increase of 38% over the same period in 2023.

Vietnam is currently the 7th largest tuna supplier to the EU market after Ecuador, Seychelles, Papua New Guinea, Mauritius, Philippines and China. While Thailand ranked 17th.

Compared to Thailand, Vietnam's production capacity is much lower.

The position of Thai tuna in the EU

After no longer receiving incentives from the Generalized Tariff System (GSP) in 2025, Thailand's tuna exports to the EU have continuously declined. The country's tuna export turnover to the EU decreased from 155 million USD in 2015 to 41 million USD in 2023, a decrease of 74%.

If the FTA between the EU and Thailand is signed, the EU will likely access the Thai seafood market with a 0% tax rate, including tuna. Up to this point, Thai tuna exports to the EU are subject to a tax of 24% - the highest tax rate in the world, after Thailand lost tax benefits from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) of the EU. EU in 2015. Currently, Thailand only exports a small amount of yellowfin tuna to the EU for processing.

Thailand has the ability to supply 600,000 tons of canned tuna per year, higher than Vietnam. However, unlike Vietnam, Thailand does not have a fishing fleet. Therefore, the country relies mainly on imported raw materials rather than fishing.

Will competitive pressure increase if ETFTA takes effect?

If compared to raw materials of pure origin (tuna caught by the national fleet), Vietnam has an advantage over Vietnam. However, with a small fleet size, Vietnam's domestic raw material supply is not enough to meet export production needs.

Besides, while Thailand has had its yellow card removed, Vietnam has not yet been able to do this. Therefore, if ETFTA takes effect, although the terms of the agreement are not clear, Thailand's tuna exports to the EU will certainly be more favorable. And this will increase the competitive pressure of Vietnamese tuna in this market.

Source: VASEP