To achieve export targets in 2026, Vietnam's coffee sector needs to powerfully accelerate deep processing and export EUDR-compliant coffee products.

Coffee is one of the agricultural commodity items declining in export value. According to the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first 6 months of this year, coffee exports reached 1.05 million tons, valued at 4.81 billion USD, up 7.4% in volume, but down 13.8% in value compared to the same period in 2025.

Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), stated that although export coffee volumes increased, turnover dropped significantly due to falling prices on the world market.

Over the past 3 years, global coffee prices rose high, prompting farmers in many countries to invest more in coffee trees, with several nations expanding cultivation areas significantly, leading to a strong upward trend in coffee output.

In its latest report, the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts total global coffee supply in the 2026/2027 crop year at approximately 189 million bags (60 kg/bag). Meanwhile, total global coffee consumption demand, though continuing to rise, will reach merely 179 million bags in the 2026/2027 crop year. Thus, in the upcoming crop year, world coffee supply will exceed demand by an estimated surplus of 10 million bags.

Additionally, coffee prices on the London (Robusta coffee) and New York (Arabica coffee) exchanges are frequently subject to manipulation by financial investors alongside several other factors.

In that context, although several factors could potentially elevate coffee prices—such as heavy rains delaying harvests in Brazil; El Niño phenomena, heatwaves, and droughts forecasted for Asia in late 2026 and 2027 that could reduce output and supply; and EUDR officially taking effect on December 30, 2026...—expectations for coffee prices to surge high again remain limited.

Therefore, to drive coffee export turnover growth in the second half of this year, the top solution is to accelerate investment in manufacturing deep-processed products from coffee.

Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai noted that during the first 6 months of this year, out of total coffee export volume, processed coffee occupied merely around 8.2–8.3%, yet accounted for up to 17.5% of total export turnover. As such, if enterprises powerfully drive the production and export of deep-processed coffee products, export turnover will increase substantially.

According to Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, in recent years, Vietnamese enterprises have recognized major opportunities in investing in deep-processed products such as instant coffee, roasted and ground coffee, blended coffee..., as demand continues rising across many markets, particularly the Chinese market.

In the Chinese market, consumption demand for instant coffee and roasted/ground coffee is currently very large and rapidly expanding. To date, many Vietnamese instant and roasted/ground coffee processing enterprises have secured export orders to China stretching through December 2026. Certain enterprises do not even possess sufficient processed coffee to fulfill purchase orders from Chinese traders.

For this reason, over recent times, Vietnamese coffee enterprises have invested heavily in building coffee processing plants, concentrating on deep-processed products like instant coffee, roasted and ground coffee... Enterprises possessing existing processing lines should expand scales to increase deep-processed coffee output.

Beside that, to propel coffee exports in the final 6 months of 2026, VICOFA recommends that Vietnam concentrate on boosting raw coffee bean exports satisfying EUDR criteria, at a time when compliance levels among other producing countries remain low.

EUDR will officially apply from December 30, 2026 (excluding small and micro enterprises). Currently, European importers are placing orders for coffee at higher prices when meeting EUDR requirements for contracts signed starting October 2026.

Concurrently, the coffee sector needs to develop specialty coffee and organic coffee product lines to satisfy the tastes of high-end segments in Europe.

Consolidating linkages between producers and exporters to stabilize supply sources for export during this period—as coffee harvesting slows in Brazil, coffee output drops in Indonesia, while demand for Robusta coffee rises—will serve as a prime opportunity for Vietnam's coffee exports to get ahead of the 2026/2027 crop year (harvesting commences from October 2026).

Source: Bao Nong nghiep va Moi truong