For nearly a decade, the United States has consistently been the number one market for Vietnam’s cashew industry, accounting for approximately 25–27% of the industry's total export value. However, in the first quarter of 2025, exports to the U.S. fell by 14.5% compared to the same period the previous year.

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs (Ministry of Finance), in the first quarter of 2025 , Vietnam exported 122,170 tons of processed cashew kernels worth USD 839.06 million—a 19% decline in volume, but a 3.7% increase in value compared to Q1/2024. Despite the drop in quantity, the average export price reached USD 6,868 per ton, up 27.9% year-over-year.

The U.S., Netherlands, and China Are Vietnam’s Three Largest Cashew Markets

In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S., the Netherlands, and China remained Vietnam’s top three cashew export markets, accounting for 22.7%, 11.2%, and 9.8% of total export value, respectively. Compared to Q1/2024, exports to the U.S. dropped 14.5% in value, and those to China declined 25.6% in volume and 16% in value.

On the other hand, exports to markets like the Netherlands and Japan recorded growth, reflecting the initial effectiveness of Vietnam’s market diversification strategy. Particularly impressive was the 43.5% increase in export value to the Netherlands.

Despite the significant decline in export volume in Q1/2025, experts and industry insiders believe that exports will rebound in the upcoming quarters as a new harvest season begins and consumer demand recovers.

In Q1/2025, the average export price of cashews to all major markets increased significantly compared to Q1/2024, with growth ranging from 12.8% to 37.9%. This was partly due to fluctuations in global cashew output, especially in Africa—a major supplier of raw cashews—which has faced challenges related to climate and logistics this year.

Looking back at 2024, Vietnam exported 730.000 tons of processed cashew kernels, earning USD 4.37 billion—up 13.3% in volume and 20.2% in value compared to 2023. The average export price reached around USD 6,003/ton in 2024, up 6.1% year-on-year.

"The Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS) has set an export target of USD 4.5 billion for 2025. To achieve this goal, cashew processors need to focus on three key pillars: improving product quality, diversifying markets, and enhancing trade promotion." — Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoa, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Cashew Association

By country, the U.S. remains the largest market for Vietnam’s cashew exports in both volume and value, worth over USD 1.1 billion (25.1% of total). China ranks second with USD 687.84 million. Additionally, Vietnam’s cashew sector has seen strong growth in EU markets such as the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain.

Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoa also noted that experts forecast global cashew production to rise by 10–15% in 2025, potentially reaching nearly 6 million tons. However, the increased supply has caused a downward trend in raw cashew prices in Africa. Meanwhile, processed cashew prices in global markets remain unstable and may fluctuate significantly starting in May.

Therefore, Mr. Hoa advised businesses not to rush into buying raw cashew materials at currently high prices. Instead, they should carefully evaluate market factors and only make purchases when prices are reasonable, to ensure profitability in production and trade.

VIETNAM’S CASHEW PRODUCTS UNLIKELY TO FACE THE HIGHEST U.S. TARIFFS

Although export value has declined in recent years, the U.S. remains the largest market for Vietnam's processed cashews, accounting for more than 25% of total exports in 2024.

However, starting April 10, 2025, cashew exports to the U.S. are subject to a 10% tariff, which may increase further by July 2025. Earlier this April, the U.S. unexpectedly announced high retaliatory tariffs on Vietnamese goods, though implementation has been temporarily postponed.

Nevertheless, Mr. Tran Van Hiep, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Cashew Association, commented:

"Among the 60+ countries importing Vietnamese cashews, we believe that despite challenges related to tariffs, the U.S. will likely remain a major and diverse market. We must do everything we can to maintain and maximize our exports there."

Regarding cashews, Mr. Hiep stated that this product is unlikely to face the highest tariff rates, as cashews are not considered essential to U.S. economic security. Still, even the minimum 10% tariff will significantly impact product pricing, transportation costs, and labor wages for Vietnamese exporters.

Explaining why Vietnam’s cashews may avoid the highest tariffs, Mr. Hiep pointed out that the U.S. does not cultivate cashews and lacks large-scale cashew processing facilities. Thus, imported cashew kernels from Vietnam do not directly compete with U.S. domestic production.

Commenting on recent developments, Mr. Hiep shared that U.S. buyers have responded positively to Vietnamese exporters. For shipments already en route to the U.S., buyers have pledged to honor existing contracts. However, once the temporary tariff deferral ends on July 10, 2025, various scenarios may unfold, potentially affecting future exports.

For nearly a decade, the U.S. has been Vietnam’s top cashew export market, followed by China at 20% and the EU at about 17–18%. If the U.S. imposes high retaliatory tariffs on cashews, exports to this market will undoubtedly fall. In that case, the U.S. may no longer be an attractive destination for Vietnamese businesses." — Mr. Tran Van Hiep, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Cashew Association

"Besides exporting to the U.S., our cashew businesses also sell to other markets. Although high tariffs present immediate challenges—especially for firms that are heavily reliant on the U.S.—they also present opportunities to expand and explore new markets," - Mr. Hiep added.

According to Mr. Hiep, one of the most promising markets at present is the Middle East. This region has shown a growing demand for cashew consumption. Over the past two years, the Middle East has become a hotspot for Vietnam’s cashew industry, with impressive growth momentum. With a well-planned market entry strategy, Vietnam can fully offset the decline in exports to the U.S. market.

Therefore, the cashew industry is seeking stronger support from Vietnam’s trade authorities, including: appointing more commercial attachés in the Middle East to provide updated market information and import-export policies; supporting businesses in finding partners and facilitating trade connections; and sharing detailed information on tariffs and customs procedures so that enterprises can prepare more effectively. "If these steps are taken properly, I believe Vietnam’s cashew industry can quickly adapt and thrive in the Middle East, rather than remaining overly dependent on the U.S.,” Mr. Hiep expressed with optimism

Source: VnEconomy