7-month durian export turnover exceeded 2 billion USD, yet prices in China are under downward pressure as supply increases faster than demand.

Increasing output, recovering exports, and the Central Highlands region preparing to enter the harvest season are opening up prospects for Vietnamese durian to exceed the 4 billion USD mark this year. However, selling prices in the Chinese market still bear downward pressure due to abundant supply, slowing consumer demand, and escalating competition.

According to Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, by the end of July, Vietnam's durian exports are estimated to reach over 2 billion USD. If the harvest season in the Central Highlands proceeds favorably and obstacles related to growing area codes and packaging facility codes are promptly resolved, the durian commodity sector can completely achieve an additional approximately 2 billion USD in the final months of the year, thereby surpassing the 4 billion USD mark—higher than last year's 3.8 billion USD level.

This prospect stems from durian output continuing to rise rapidly. According to the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, the entire country currently possesses approximately 192,000 hectares of durian; output in 2025 reached around 1.8 million tons and is expected to increase to 2 - 2.1 million tons in 2026. Newly planted areas continuously expanded in recent years cause annual output to increase by around 20-30%, creating substantial room for exports.

However, Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen considers that the rate of output growth also sets forth requirements to accelerate the issuance and approval of growing area codes and packaging facility codes. If procedures fail to keep pace with output, the volume of durian eligible for official export will be restricted, impacting consumption capabilities in the upcoming peak harvest season.

According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Giang, Deputy Director of the Can Tho City Department of Agriculture and Environment, the department is actively deploying regulations of import markets, reviewing, conducting training courses, and guiding farmers to maintain as well as grant new growing area codes that meet conditions. Simultaneously, specialized sectors are also seriously executing Government decrees, issuing documents to inspect and monitor the system of growing area codes and packaging facilities down to each commune and ward in order to perfect export-standard value chains.

"A growing area code is not the final destination, but a responsibility to safeguard the quality and prestige of the growing area. Safeguarding agricultural product quality is the core factor to improve people's lives, proving a critical transition step from purely agricultural production thinking to sustainable agricultural economic thinking," the leader of the Can Tho City Department of Agriculture and Environment evaluated.

In parallel with fresh durian exports, frozen products also recorded growth this year thanks to lower raw material prices, creating conditions for enterprises to purchase more, particularly regarding fruits failing to reach fresh export standards. However, this segment still plays merely a supplementary role.

According to the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, last year China imported approximately 8 billion USD worth of durian from Southeast Asian countries, within which over 1 billion USD was frozen durian, and nearly 7 billion USD was fresh durian. This demonstrates that Chinese consumers still prioritize using fresh products. For Vietnam, frozen durian currently accounts for only about 10-15% of total export turnover and is expected to increase to merely around 20% this year.

Not only does consumer demand still lean toward fresh goods, but frozen durian also encounters limitations due to strict preservation requirements across the entire transport and distribution chain. Meanwhile, products such as frozen seedless durian segments or dried durian are still not genuinely popular in the Chinese market.

The notable point is that while export turnover continues to rise, the price of durian sold to China has decreased significantly. According to Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, the largest cause lies not in product quality but in declining consumption capacity in China.

"Multiple regions of China are bearing impacts from rainstorms and floods, making fruit consumption slower. Not only durian but also multiple other imported fruit types fall into a similar status," Mr. Nguyen stated.

Besides, market supply also increased rapidly as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia simultaneously entered harvest seasons. In Thailand, durian prices this year also dropped to the lowest level in about 10 years due to sharply increased output. According to the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand, as of July 19, this country exported over 1 million tons of fresh durian to China, completing its full-year target early.

Meanwhile, Vietnam is about to enter a major harvest season in the Central Highlands. This is a region possessing durian quality highly evaluated by numerous Chinese traders, but simultaneously will cause market supply to add further in the final months of the year.

According to the Agency of Foreign Trade (Ministry of Industry and Trade), beyond supply-demand factors, improving logistics systems and reducing transport costs also contributed to pulling the baseline durian price level in China down lower.

Monthong variety durians from Thailand and Vietnam are currently sold at prices ranging from 20 – 30 RMB (equivalent to 2.79 – 4.18 USD)/0.5 kg, much lower than the level of 35 - 45 RMB (equivalent to 4.88 – 6.27 USD)/0.5 kg in the same period last year.

Similarly, wholesale prices at market hubs for Vietnam's Grade A Monthong durian dropped from 36.5 RMB (equivalent to 5.09 USD)/0.5 kg down to 13 RMB (equivalent to 1.81 USD)/0.5 kg during the period from April to June. Thailand's Grade A Monthong durian price also dropped from 26.5 RMB (3.69 USD)/0.5 kg down to 18 RMB (2.51 USD)/0.5 kg.

Perfecting logistics systems has helped transport times shorten significantly, bringing volumes of goods to market faster and in larger quantities. During peak season, Thai durians can be transported to Kunming in merely around 26 hours and distributed to over 30 Chinese cities within 48 hours, contributing to making market supply abundant.

According to enterprises, the high-end durian segment still possesses the capacity to maintain prices well thanks to stable demand, whereas mass product lines will continue to bear price competition pressures as supply increases.

To support durian exports as well as multiple other agricultural products, the Government is planning to issue a Resolution on simplifying administrative procedures regarding growing area codes and packaging facility codes. The Resolution targets shortening procedural times, reducing compliance costs, while simultaneously strengthening post-inspections and origin traceability.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment also stated it will continue negotiating with the Chinese side to shorten the approval time for lists of growing area codes and packaging facilities, creating more favorable conditions for exports.

Source: TTXVN