The booming export of durian brings numerous benefits, but excessive reliance on a single market poses challenges regarding pricing and the risk of agricultural product congestion if supply chains encounter unexpected disruptions.

Durian is becoming one of Vietnam's key export commodities. Export headroom is substantial, yet the lesson from dragon fruit shows that volume advantages can quickly become a burden if supply grows faster than the market and the value chain fails to keep pace.

China still has headroom, but do not "put all eggs in one basket

Dak Lak—one of the largest durian production regions in the Central Highlands—currently has about 45,000 ha of durian, with 2026 output projected to reach 500,000 tons, concentrated in harvests from August to November.

The locality has 280 growing areas and 41 packaging facilities granted export codes, though the area with issued codes accounts for only about 17–28% of the harvestable area. Currently, 253 growing area codes with a total area of 6,532 ha and 92 other packaging facilities are awaiting approval from China.

Notably, about 70% of Dak Lak's durian output is consumed in China.

Nationwide, in the first 5 months of the year, China accounted for 87.5% of Vietnam's durian export turnover, equivalent to 492 million USD out of a total of 562.4 million USD.

According to Mr. Tran Van Thang, Vice President of the Dak Lak Durian Association, Dak Lak durian is harvested mainly from August to November, differing from several major production regions around the world.

Combined with growing areas in the Mekong Delta and Southeast regions, seasonal divergence among regions can help Vietnam establish a year-round durian supply chain.

However, according to Mr. Thang, advantages in area and output do not mean the industry should continue pursuing scale expansion.

"The future development orientation is not to chase expansion of area and output, but to shift toward improving quality, food safety, uniformity, and product value," he said.

Accordingly, the durian industry needs to shift from a "produce first, find buyers later" mindset to production driven by market demand, while increasing linkages among farmers, cooperatives, enterprises, scientists, and international partners.

Mr. Le Anh Trung, President of the Dak Lak Durian Association, also noted that growing area codes or packaging facility codes are merely conditions for participating in exports; they do not equate to a brand, nor do they guarantee products will sell at high prices.

"If you want to build a brand, you must remain committed and select capable exporting enterprises to build the brand together," Mr. Trung said.

At the Vietnam–China durian supply chain networking event held in Dak Lak on the afternoon of August 19, with the direct participation of 63 Chinese enterprises and entities, Mr. Thach Minh Huy, Chairman of Trung Nong Thinh Nguyen Seed Group, assessed that the billion-person market still holds substantial headroom.

According to information shared at the program, about 1 billion Chinese people have never eaten durian, while purchasing power in the retail segment—especially for high-quality products and premium brands—still has room for growth.

This shows that China is not yet a market that has "run out of headroom." However, the bigger question is how Vietnam will leverage this market to build a sustainable industry rather than simply increasing export volumes.

The lesson of dragon fruit is noteworthy.

According to Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, Secretary-General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, China was once the primary export market for Vietnamese white-flesh dragon fruit, but consumers in this country increasingly favor domestic products.

By 2024, China's dragon fruit cultivation area had expanded to nearly 70,000 ha, with an estimated annual output of about 1.7 million tons. Notably, China's harvest season concentrates from June to November, quite similar to Vietnam's. When domestic supply surged, import demand dropped, and Vietnamese dragon fruit faced heavy price pressure.

Durian has not yet fallen into a prolonged situation like dragon fruit, but recent fluctuations have illustrated the risks of over-reliance on a single market. This past April, many orchard owners in the Mekong Delta were left anxious as durian prices dropped sharply amid testing-related bottlenecks in exports to China.

Not just selling fresh fruit, extending the value chain is essential

According to Ms. Tang Hieu Ngoc, representative of the China Certification & Inspection Group (CCIC), Vietnam's durian opportunity lies not only in selling more fresh fruit, but also in the ability to upgrade the entire value chain between Vietnam and China.

First and foremost, supply quality must be ensured through seed optimization, the development and application of standards systems, increased technical assistance, and the use of digital technology in production monitoring.

In the long term, according to experts, Vietnam needs to build 1–2 durian brands with strong influence in China. This is a necessary step to convert advantages in raw material areas and output into brand value and competitive strength.

Post-harvest, cold chains must receive seamless investment from raw material areas and transportation processes to warehouse systems in importing markets. Traceability also needs to be digitized, ensuring each shipment can be tested and verified clearly regarding its origin.

"The important thing is combining direct distribution systems with online channels, while stepping up marketing to raise the brand awareness of Vietnamese durian in the market," Ms. Ngoc stated.

Further ahead, the value chain can expand into deep processing, supplying ingredients for the food industry and agritourism. Both sides can also build digital platforms connecting growing areas and warehouses with the market, thereby sharing data on soil, climate, pests and diseases, consumer demand, prices, orders, logistics, and inventory.

The seasonality factor must also be taken into account.

Mr. Vo Tan Loi, President of the Dong Thap Durian Association, stated that the local durian harvest season coincides at times with Thailand's durian season, intensifying competitive pressure in China. When testing activities encounter difficulties and prices plummet, some enterprises tend to purchase cautiously, leading to risks of congestion during peak harvest.

Dong Thap currently has about 32,100 ha of durian, of which over 22,100 ha are bearing fruit, yielding about 511,600 tons. The entire province possesses 355 export growing area codes to China, corresponding to over 13,985 ha, alongside 130 packaging facility codes.

"These figures show that the scale of the industry is large enough to warrant a different approach; area and output can no longer be used as the sole yardstick of growth," Mr. Loi assessed.

Following a phase of rapid growth in area, output, and export turnover, the equation for Vietnamese durian is shifting. The challenge is no longer simply how much can be grown or exported, but controlling quality, diversifying markets, extending value chains, and building brands.

Source: Bao dien tu Dan tri