Vietnam's cashew nut export prices continued to maintain at high levels in May 2026, contributing to helping the export turnover exceed 528 million USD. However, geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East are creating multiple challenges for the cashew industry, forcing Vinacas to adjust and lower this year's export target to 5 billion USD.

According to data from the General Department of Customs (Ministry of Finance), in May 2026, Vietnam exported 74,107 tons of cashew nuts, achieving a turnover of 528.54 million USD, up 7.7% in volume and up 8.2% in value compared to the previous month. However, compared to the same period in 2025, export volume decreased by 8.6% and turnover decreased by 4%.

Taking the first 5 months of 2026 as a whole, the entire country exported 268,408 tons of cashew nuts, pulling in 1.87 billion USD, down 3% in volume and down 0.3% in value compared to the same period last year.

CASHEW PRICES RISE, EXPORTS STILL FACE HEAVY PRESSURE

China continues to be the largest cashew nut consumer market for Vietnam. In May, exports to this market reached 25,135 tons, valued at 181,27 million USD, surging sharply compared to the previous month and up 16.7% in value compared to the same period in 2025. Taking the first 5 months as a whole, exports to China reached 60,022 tons, valued at 431.7 million USD. Although the volume decreased by 8.5%, the turnover still rose by 4.4% thanks to higher selling prices.

The positive point is that export prices continue to rise. In May 2026, the average export price reached 7,132 USD/ton, up 5% compared to the same period last year. Cumulatively for the first 5 months of the year, the average export price reached 6,994 USD/ton, an increase of 2.7%.

Alongside two large markets, namely China and the United States, cashew nut exports to multiple other markets recorded positive signals. The Netherlands imported 22,349 tons of Vietnamese cashew nuts in the first 5 months of the year, reaching nearly 160 million USD, up slightly compared to the same period last year. Notably, the German market grew robustly with an import volume of over 11,000 tons, valued at over 78 million USD, up more than 24% in value. In addition, Canada, Australia, Thailand, and Spain also recorded favorable growth levels.

Meanwhile, exports to the United States continued to slow down. In May 2026, the export volume to this market only reached 13,584 tons, valued at 93.3 million USD, down more than 20% compared to the same period last year. Cumulatively for the first 5 months of the year, exports to the United States reached 59,506 tons, valued at 403.9 million USD, decreasing slightly in both volume and value.

Nevertheless, these positive results have not been enough to offset the difficulties that the cashew industry is facing from the decline of the Middle East market.

According to Mr. Bach Khanh Nhut, Permanent Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas), after three consecutive years of double-digit growth, the cashew industry entered 2026 with high expectations. However, escalating conflicts in the Middle East have overturned the export prospects of the entire industry.

In the first 2 months of 2026, export activities took place relatively smoothly. However, from mid-March, when tensions in the Middle East intensified, the volume of goods exported to this region began to drop sharply. In March alone, exports to the Middle East decreased by approximately 50%. Moving to April, almost no new orders were signed. By the end of May, trading activities with this region almost fell into a state of "freezing".

According to Vinacas, the stagnation of the logistics system, difficulties in maritime transport, and the cautious sentiment of importers have caused transactions to nearly grind to a halt. As a consequence, Vietnam's cashew exports in the first 4 months of 2026 decreased by about 3.8% compared to the same period last year.

THE MIDDLE EAST MARKET DECLINES, THE CASHEW INDUSTRY ENCOUNTERS DIFFICULTIES

The Middle East is currently the third-largest export market for the Vietnamese cashew industry, standing only behind the United States and China, accounting for about 12% of the entire industry's total export turnover in 2025. Therefore, the decline of this market has exerted a massive impact on enterprises.

According to Mr. Bach Khanh Nhut, seeking new markets to replace the Middle East is not easy. Currently, Vietnamese cashews are present in more than 112 countries and territories, demonstrating that the room for market expansion is no longer substantial. Developing a new market requires a long time to construct distribution systems, consumer habits, and customer networks. Therefore, it is very difficult to expect an additional growth of 5-7% in a short time to compensate for the shortfall from the Middle East.

Not only encountering difficulties regarding markets, cashew processing and exporting enterprises are also under major pressure regarding costs. Ocean freight rates and warehousing costs have surged strongly while orders decreased, causing profit margins to contract visibly. Multiple enterprises still try to maintain transactions to retain customers, but business efficiency is not high.

Pressure regarding capital is also a major issue. Multiple enterprises lack working capital while loan interest rates remain at relatively high levels. Besides, increasingly strict requirements on the environment, sustainable development, food safety, and traceability in major markets such as the European Union (EU) and China also drive up compliance costs.

Vinacas has adjusted the 2026 cashew export target down to 5 billion USD, lower than the level of over 5.4 billion USD in 2025. The new target was constructed on a cautious basis, corresponding to a decrease of around 8-10% compared to the previous year.

According to Vinacas leaders, if the situation in the Middle East stabilizes soon and trade activities are resumed in the second half of the year, the cashew industry will still possess opportunities to recover. However, against the current backdrop, preparing for a difficult scenario is necessary for enterprises to proactively respond.

The Association also petitioned ministries and sectors to coordinate with shipping lines and logistics enterprises to relieve transport and warehouse cost pressures for enterprises. Simultaneously, there needs to be appropriate credit policies such as lowering interest rates, extending debts, or supporting working capital for exporting enterprises.

In the long term, the largest challenge for the cashew industry remains the source of raw materials. Currently, approximately 90% of cashew raw materials serving processing in Vietnam must be imported from Africa and Cambodia. Meanwhile, many African nations are investing heavily in local deep processing, reducing the volume of raw cashews exported to Vietnam. Besides, the domestic cashew area has mostly grown old, yielding low productivity.

To guarantee sustainable development, Vinacas argues that it is necessary to boost trade agreements with African countries to create favorable conditions for raw material import activities. Concurrently, it is crucial to deploy replanting programs and develop domestic raw material zones soon to step-by-step reduce reliance on imported raw cashew sources, upgrading the competitive capacity of the Vietnamese cashew industry in the coming years.

Source: VnEconomy