Exports have grown robustly thanks to global demand, placing Vietnamese coconuts among the leading groups. However, the heat of orders is causing domestic price fluctuations, creating both opportunities and challenges.

Vietnamese coconuts join the "billion-dollar club"

The Vietnamese coconut industry is witnessing its strongest growth period in recent years. According to data from the Customs Authority, in 2025, coconut export turnover reached over 533 million USD, an increase of more than 36% over the same period in the previous year. If processed products such as canned coconut water, coconut oil, desiccated coconut, or coconut-based cosmetics are included, the total value of the entire industry has touched the milestone of approximately 1.15 billion USD.

This result makes Vietnam the third-largest country globally in exporting coconuts and coconut products, trailing only the Philippines and Indonesia. This represents a significant step forward compared to the previous period, when coconuts were primarily exported as raw materials with low added value.

Entering the first quarter of 2026, the growth trend has been maintained. Amidst a nationwide fruit and vegetable export growth of over 31%, coconuts continue to be one of the positive contributors. Fresh coconuts alone achieved a turnover of approximately 65 million USD, up 26% over the same period, indicating that international market demand remains high.

This breakthrough stems not only from market factors but also from the restructuring process of the industry. The standardization of raw material areas, diversification of products, and quality improvements have helped Vietnamese coconuts satisfy increasingly stringent criteria from importing markets.

US and China drive demand, expanding growth space

In the export market landscape, the US and China are emerging as the two most critical drivers of growth.

The US currently accounts for nearly 26% of Vietnam's total coconut export turnover. Demand there has risen sharply due to consumer trends favoring healthy, low-sugar, and naturally sourced foods. Products like canned coconut water, organic coconut water, and other coconut preparations are becoming increasingly popular in retail systems and the beverage industry.

Many domestic enterprises noted that orders from supermarket chains and beverage manufacturers in the US continue to increase in 2026, especially in the premium segment. This shows that the growth space for Vietnamese coconuts in this market remains immense.

Simultaneously, China is becoming a new "locomotive" after officially opening its doors to formal imports of fresh Vietnamese coconuts in August 2024. This is a consumer market that utilizes around 4 billion coconuts annually, including up to 2.6 billion fresh coconuts.

With the advantages of close geographical proximity, low logistics costs, and fast transit times, Vietnamese coconuts have rapidly increased their market share in this nation of a billion people. Many businesses evaluate that demand from China will continue to rise sharply in the coming years, particularly as import standards are gradually finalized.

In the coconut "capital" of Ben Tre, the locality is proactively anticipating official export opportunities. Currently, the province possesses more than 78,000 hectares of coconuts, in which the area of green Siam drinking coconuts accounts for over 20%. Ben Tre has established 6 concentrated production zones, including 5 zones that meet organic standards.

The entire province currently has 32 cooperation groups and 28 cooperatives participating in linkage chains with enterprises, creating a vital foundation for meeting traceability and product quality requirements. The organic coconut area has reached nearly 17,846 hectares, accounting for about 22,9% of the total area, demonstrating that sustainable production trends are being strongly pushed forward.

Domestic prices heat up, intertwining opportunities and challenges

While exports enjoy robust growth, the domestic market has witnessed notable fluctuations. Fresh coconut prices, after maintaining low levels for a long period, have surged strongly in the first months of 2026.

In key raw material areas such as Vinh Long, farm-gate prices for fresh coconuts currently fluctuate from 80,000 to 100,000 VND per dozen (12 fruits), and even hit 110,000 to 120,000 VND per dozen at certain times. Compared to the beginning of the year, this price level has increased two- to threefold.

This price hike quickly spread to the retail market. In Ho Chi Minh City, the prevailing price of fresh coconuts stands at 15,000–20,000 VND per fruit, an increase of 3,000–5,000 VND compared to before. High consumption demands during the hot season, particularly during holidays, have caused purchasing power to jump threefold compared to normal times.

The cause of this price surge comes not only from domestic demand but is also heavily impacted by exports. As international orders soar, a portion of the supply is prioritized for foreign markets, leading to a narrowing of domestic supply. Additionally, weather factors such as droughts have affected yields, further exacerbating price pressures.

The increase in coconut prices brings clear benefits to farmers. With an average income of around 100–150 million VND/hectare/year, many households have begun expanding their cultivation areas and switching to coconut planting to replace less efficient crops. Confidence in the coconut sector is consequently being restored step-by-step.

However, experts warn that rapid growth also harbors multiple risks. Sharp price fluctuations can impact market stability, while the linkages between enterprises and farmers remain limited. Furthermore, meeting international criteria for quality and sustainable production presents a major challenge for many localities.

In the long term, to maintain its competitive edge, the coconut industry needs to continue pushing forward the construction of standard-compliant raw material areas, developing organic production, and investing in deep processing. Currently, over 60% of dried coconut output has been directed into processing, creating value-added products like coconut milk, coconut oil, coconut milk powder, or activated carbon. This will serve as a vital foundation to help Vietnam's coconut industry elevate its value, reduce dependence on raw exports, and develop sustainably amidst a volatile global market.

Source: Bao Nong nghiep va Moi truong