Despite the recent decline in shrimp imports, China will still drive significant growth in global seafood consumption over the next decade, presenting significant opportunities for international exporters.

China’s shrimp imports fell for the fourth consecutive quarter in the three months ending June 30, 2024, marking a new era of cautious buying in the vast market, according to a panel of experts at the Global Shrimp Council held earlier this week in Utrecht, the Netherlands.

The country imported a record 1 million tonnes of shrimp in 2023, according to Willem van der Pijl, CEO of the Global Shrimp Forum Foundation.

However, according to a new report from Rabobank, China will account for 40% of the increase in global seafood consumption by 2030, equivalent to an additional 5.5 million tonnes of seafood.

With a population of 1.4 billion and a growing middle class, China’s seafood market is poised for significant expansion. By 2030, China is expected to transform into a $29 billion seafood import market, surpassing the current $25 billion market of the United States, according to Rabobank. This shift reflects a dual trend of both volume and value growth, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and a growing preference for higher-value seafood.

Rabobank said China's high per capita seafood consumption was 41 kg in 2023 and is expected to increase to 46 kg by 2030. However, domestic production challenges, including environmental degradation, resource scarcity and rising wages, will push China to look to seafood imports to fill the growing supply gap.

China's transformation from a producer to a major global buyer and price setter will have far-reaching implications for international seafood markets, a new Rabobank report said. Decisions made by China regarding seafood supply will influence global trade dynamics, affecting the supply and prices of key seafood species such as salmon, lobster and shrimp.

China’s seafood imports are expected to grow to $29 billion by 2030. This expansion reflects a strategic shift in China’s trade balance, where its past seafood trade surplus has shrunk and imports are surging. The country is expected to become a net importer, driven by a commitment to balancing domestic consumption with international supply, according to Rabobank analysis.

Key beneficiaries of this growth include Southeast Asian countries, India and Latin American countries, which are well-positioned to supply high-value seafood products. Chile and Norway, both important salmon producers, are now increasing their exports to China, although they face challenges in transferring volumes from traditional markets.

The rise of e-commerce and changing retail dynamics also play a role. With e-commerce sales of seafood soaring, Chinese consumers are increasingly looking for higher-quality imported options, a trend that will further boost demand for international seafood sources.

Source: Vietnamexport