The global rice market in late 2026 faces multifaceted volatility, from weather anomalies and supply fluctuations to geopolitical headwinds. To secure its target of exporting roughly 7.7 million metric tons of rice in 2026, Vietnam must capitalize on rising import demand, sharpen its competitiveness through quality and brand equity, and deliver products aligned with green production trends.

Intertwined opportunities and pressures

In the first seven months of 2026, Vietnam’s rice exports reached approximately 5.5 million tons, valued at USD 2.64 billion, up 0.5% in volume but down 6.7% in value compared to the same period in 2025. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), noted that while many countries are expanding strategic reserves to hedge against supply risks, Vietnam must proactively defend traditional markets and cultivate new outlets to reduce reliance on major buyers. The Department of Agriculture of the Philippines warned that domestic third-quarter paddy output could drop by roughly 700,000 tons if El Niño intensifies, necessitating sustained imports to secure supply and stabilize domestic prices. Total Philippine rice imports through early August reached approximately 3.3 million tons. This presents an opportunity for Vietnam to accelerate shipments, as the Philippines remains Vietnam’s largest rice import destination. In the first seven months of the year, Vietnam exported roughly 2.5 million tons of rice to this market, accounting for approximately 45% of the nation’s total export volume.

However, unlike the Philippines, several importing nations are striving to enhance food self-sufficiency. Malaysia aims for 80% self-sufficiency in rice by 2030; Indonesia is ramping up domestic procurement and stockpiling; and Bangladesh is concentrating on developing rice varieties resilient to drought, flooding, and salinity intrusion. Consequently, Vietnam’s export headroom could narrow as domestic production capacities in these countries improve.

Vietnamese rice also faces fierce competition from major low-cost exporters. Specifically, Indian rice continues to exert heavy pricing pressure on competing suppliers, with 5% broken rice quoted at around USD 360/ton—substantially below Thailand’s USD 450/ton, Vietnam’s USD 438/ton, and Pakistan’s USD 401/ton. Meanwhile, within Southeast Asia, Cambodia is aggressively expanding exports to the Philippines with competitively priced long-grain white rice. Thailand is likewise actively engaged, stepping up trade negotiations with China while promoting rice sales across the Philippines and Malaysia.

Efforts to defend market ground

Amid cutthroat competition, preserving traditional markets carries critical strategic weight for Vietnam’s rice exports, particularly in the Philippines. Consequently, the VFA recommended that the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment proactively liaise with Philippine authorities and establish a structured dialogue mechanism between the food associations of both nations to swiftly resolve operational friction related to rice trade.

Over the long term, elevating the intrinsic value of Vietnamese rice remains an imperative strategic direction. As VFA Chairman Do Ha Nam analyzed, Vietnam possesses premium cultivars such as ST25 and Jasmine, yet has not established a national rice brand strong enough to command a sustained price premium globally. For instance, Thai Hom Mali rice currently commands around USD 1,000/ton, whereas Vietnamese ST25 exported to China fetches only roughly USD 700/ton, despite domestic retail prices converting to approximately USD 1,500/ton.

Confronting this reality, generating higher value addition requires Vietnam to create structural differentiation right from the production phase. According to Le Thanh Tung, Secretary-General of the Vietnam Rice Industry Association (VIETRISA), over the past two years Vietnam has aggressively implemented the project for "Sustainable Development of 1 Million Hectares of High-Quality, Low-Emission Rice Cultivation Associated with Green Growth in the Mekong River Delta." In parallel, VIETRISA developed and certified the "Low-Emission Green Vietnamese Rice" trademark. This serves as a product identifier directly linked to quality standards, traceability, and environmental stewardship. From an initial pilot shipment of 500 tons to Japan in June 2025, approximately 70,000 tons were certified under the label and exported by May 2026. Formulating products that harmonize nutritional, social, and environmental values represents the essential pathway for Vietnamese rice to ease price competition pressures and capture market share across premium market segments.

Source: Bao Nhan Dan