Vietnam supplies nearly 90% of imported cashew volume into the United States and continues to maintain the leading position in Germany. However, as export turnover rises primarily due to prices, product structures shift, and cashew-growing countries aggressively expand domestic processing, Vietnam's cashew industry must swiftly transition from scale advantages to quality, deep processing, and supply chain control.

Large markets create growth headroom

In the first 7 months of 2026, Vietnam exported approximately 412,000 tons of cashew kernels, earning nearly 2.9 billion USD. Compared to the same period last year, export volume dipped slightly by 0.1%, but turnover rose by 3.3%, demonstrating that revenues were bolstered mainly by average unit prices rather than volume gains.

This provides a positive short-term signal, but also demands caution regarding price fluctuations and requires a sharper focus on product development, branding, and supply chain stability.

In the United States, recovery momentum is evident: in the first half of the year alone, cashew imports into this market grew by 13% in volume and 13.6% in value, reaching 69,703 tons valued at approximately 470 million USD. Vietnam alone supplied 62,618 tons—equivalent to 89.8% of total US imports—generating 424.7 million USD at an average price of 6,783 USD/ton.

According to data from the General Statistics Office, cashew exports in the first 8 months of 2026 reached 478,000 tons, valued at 3.374 billion USD, down 0.8% in volume but up 2.8% in value year-on-year. Meanwhile, raw cashew imports—predominantly serving domestic processing—reached 2.118 million tons valued at 3.511 billion USD over the same period.

Côte d'Ivoire, the second-largest supplier to the US, accounted for merely 6.6%. This wide margin highlights the processing capacity, delivery reliability, and commercial partnerships built by Vietnamese enterprises over decades.

Notably, US cashew demand rose even during the summer—typically an off-peak period—indicating that cashews continue benefiting from healthy snacking trends across a market of over 300 million consumers.

However, an almost 90% market share also underscores heavy exposure: shifts in US consumer purchasing power, trade policies, or import standards could substantially disrupt the entire domestic industry. Cashew processing and exporting enterprises must therefore leverage their lead as a foundation to climb the value ladder.

In Europe, Germany remains a high-potential destination as its cashew import turnover continues to expand vigorously. In the first 5 months of 2026, Germany imported 35,222 tons of cashews worth 266.12 million USD, up 11.7% in volume and 24.2% in value.

Vietnam supplied 22,300 tons, earning 170.5 million USD at an average price of 7,619 USD/ton—surpassing the market average of 7,557 USD/ton. This price premium demonstrates that Vietnamese goods can establish a firm foothold in high-value segments and earn acceptance in discerning markets.

Over the first 7 months of 2026, W320 kernels retained the leading position with 136,300 tons and 952.78 million USD, yet declined 10.6% in volume and 13.1% in value. Conversely, W240 kernels reached 66,100 tons worth 485.69 million USD, up 19.9% and 17.3% respectively, expanding their volume share from 13.3% to 16%. These diverging trends require processors to track segment-specific demand closely and operate flexible production lines rather than relying on a narrow set of traditional grades.

Converting market-share advantages into sustainable value

Market dominance in high-standard destinations like the US and the top spot in Germany prove that Vietnam's high-value cashew products are securing their international footing. To maintain sustainable growth, Vietnamese cashew enterprises must progressively enhance competitiveness, shifting focus from pure scale to quality, traceability, and added value.

According to the Agency of Foreign Trade, enterprises must diversify portfolios, upgrade processing quality, and bolster competitive capacity to defend market share against emerging alternative suppliers.

Commenting on this issue, Mr. Nguyen Anh Son, Director General of the Agency of Foreign Trade, noted that domestic firms remain insufficiently integrated into high-value-added nodes of global value chains, with multiple sectors remaining heavily reliant on imported raw inputs. In the cashew sector, this vulnerability is pronounced.

Mr. Bach Khanh Nhut, Permanent Vice President of the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS), stated that Vietnam relies on Africa and Cambodia for roughly 90% of its raw cashew nuts. Meanwhile, African nations are investing heavily in domestic processing, simultaneously squeezing raw cashew nut supplies available for export and creating new rivals in the processed kernel market.

Industry risks therefore encompass not only raw material price spikes, but also physical supply shortages, surging freight rates, and contractual defaults. To mitigate vulnerability, Vietnam must replant aging orchards, adopt higher-yielding and higher-quality cultivars, and strengthen direct contracts between farming zones and processing plants.

Enterprises must also diversify import partners, conduct quality inspections at origin, and establish risk-sharing frameworks, as substantial processing capacities cannot function efficiently without stable feedstock supplies.

For Germany and the broader European Union, adhering to green criteria and preferential rules of origin has become central to competitiveness. Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director General of the Agency of Foreign Trade, stressed that exporters can benefit from preferential tariffs only when fulfilling origin rules.

Relying on imported raw materials does not automatically disqualify exported goods from tariff preferences; however, enterprises must master specific origin criteria, maintain comprehensive production records, and guarantee traceability throughout the processing chain.

Satisfying food safety, environmental, and sustainability requirements remains equally essential for maintaining market access.

Another strategic direction is accelerating deep processing: roasted and flavored nuts, cashew butter, cashew milk, and industrial food ingredients expand product value and connect processors directly with end consumers. VINACAS has identified this as a necessary strategic pivot amid global supply chain restructuring.

In the short term, global prices are forecast to hold steady or rise slightly, particularly for premium grades. By leveraging recovering consumer demand to recalibrate product portfolios, expand deep processing, and ensure supply chain transparency, Vietnam's cashew industry can convert volume-based scale into enduring competitive strength.

Source: Tap chi Kinh te - Tai chinh