After nearly half a year of continuous decline, Vietnam's canned tuna exports to the US increased again in October. The export value of canned tuna this month reached nearly 12 million USD, up 16% over the same period in 2023. In the first 10 months of 2024, the export value reached more than 87 million USD, up 17% over the same period.

The US has been the largest importer of canned tuna from Vietnam for many years, accounting for 36% of the total export turnover of this product group.

In the canned tuna segment, the volume of canned tuna imports from this country has decreased sharply after reaching its peak in 2022. In 2024, canned tuna imports from the US are currently only at the same level as in the same period. Asian canneries are expanding their markets in the US during this period. Thailand remains the largest source of canned tuna for the US. However, the volume of canned tuna imported from Thailand to the US during this period is only at the same level as in the same period. Meanwhile, the US increased imports from Vietnam and South Korea.

Vietnam's canned tuna exports to the US, after a period of decline, increased again in October. In the US market, Vietnam is the second largest source of canned tuna, accounting for more than 17% of the country's total import volume.

Canned food producers from Mexico, Indonesia and Ecuador are also losing market share in the US market. Imports from Indonesia have been falling continuously for the past 3 years.

Vietnam has now surpassed Mexico to become the second largest supplier of canned tuna to the US after Thailand, accounting for 12% of total import volume. Canned tuna products exported from Vietnam to the US have also been adjusted to lower prices by businesses, fluctuating at an average of 4,670 USD/ton.

The US economy is currently recovering rapidly. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its economic growth forecast for the US in 2024 and 2025. Accordingly, this is the only developed economy with an upward outlook for both years. Domestic consumption in the US is higher and is expected to continue to increase in the context of rising wages and asset prices. Therefore, the retail sales of seafood in the US are increasing, which is expected to boost seafood imports, including tuna, in the coming time. Therefore, this will be an opportunity to boost exports for Vietnamese enterprises.

In addition, the recent US election results with the re-election of former President Donald Trump will impact Vietnam's tuna exports. Tuna exports to this market are expected to fluctuate if the US imposes an import tax of 60-100% on China and 10-20% on other countries. Before the tax imposition period, tuna export output, especially canned tuna, will suddenly increase sharply as importers stock up in advance to avoid high taxes. However, the expected increase in shipping costs will erode profits.

Source: VASEP