In mid-October, the farm-gate price of green Siam coconuts in the Mekong Delta fell by half after shipments were rejected by Chinese buyers. Around the same time, durian prices in Dak Lak dropped by 60–65% as testing laboratories were temporarily shut down for maintenance after months of overcapacity.

Although durian exports resumed clearance on November 1, coconuts remain stranded. The root cause behind both crises—affecting Vietnam’s two billion-dollar fruit industries—is the same: overheated growth driven by weak quality control and inadequate certification systems.

Paying the Price for Mixed-Quality Exports

The United States and China have been the two key growth engines for Vietnam’s coconut industry, especially for fresh coconuts, over the past two years. In July 2023, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) officially approved the import of fresh coconuts from Vietnam. A month later, China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) conducted on-site inspections of Vietnam’s coconut planting areas and packaging facilities. However, it was not until August 2024 that both sides signed the official export protocol.

According to the Vietnam Coconut Association (VCA) and VIRAC Research, Vietnam’s exports of fresh coconuts and processed coconut products reached about USD 900 million in 2023. In 2024, the figure rose to nearly USD 1.1 billion, up more than 20%. This year, exports are projected to inch slightly higher, reaching between USD 1.1 and 1.15 billion.

However, by mid-October, the price of green Siam coconuts in major producing provinces such as Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, and Vinh Long had plunged to around VND 5,000 per fruit—down 40–50% from the start of the year. According to Mr. Cao Ba Dang Khoa, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the VCA, this sharp drop was not caused by typical market cycles or seasonal factors. “It’s the result of rapid and uncoordinated growth,” he said.

“Export shipments have become a hodgepodge—a ‘hotpot mix’ lacking transparency and consistency in quality and nutrition,” he added.

Vietnam has more than 200,000 hectares of coconut plantations with 16 export varieties, yet few farmers register ownership or adhere to quality control standards. Most grow independently, while traders purchase coconuts without following any formal grading system.

As coconut profits surged, new companies rapidly entered the market. Mr. Le Thanh Tron, Director of Thanh Danh Coconut Trading Co., warned that buying mixed, unsorted coconuts had led to rejections by Chinese importers.

The consequences of this “hot growth” have been severe. Over 600 businesses are now engaged in coconut processing and trade, but many have collapsed in the past two quarters. According to the VCA, numerous firms have dissolved amid declining export prices and tightening quality requirements. Worse still, inconsistent quality has eroded international trust—especially in China—making it difficult for Vietnamese coconuts to compete after their initial export trial.

Mr. Khoa explained that the loss of confidence in China has put Vietnamese coconuts in a difficult position. In contrast, exporters with standardized operations—such as Vina T&T Group, led by Chairman and CEO Nguyen Dinh Tung—remain confident in their path to the U.S. market.

The industry is now restructuring planting zones to preserve specialty coconut varieties, strengthen traceability, and develop value chain linkages. Efforts are also underway to promote organic fertilizer use and offer financial support to farmers to prevent premature harvesting of coconuts under 20 days old due to cash-flow pressure. The sector has also revived its “Vietnam Coconut Map” planning framework, first approved in 2016.

Fresh coconuts sold in Chinese and U.S. supermarkets fetch double Vietnam’s retail prices—around 25 yuan (VND 95,000) in Beijing or Shanghai, and over USD 5 (VND 120,000) in the U.S.—indicating vast potential. But Vietnam is far from alone in the market. Thailand, though a step ahead, faces similar structural weaknesses such as fragmented planting and inconsistent quality due to limited government coordination. According to The Nation, when Vietnamese coconuts dropped to VND 5,000 per fruit, farm prices in Thailand’s Songkhla province fell to just 2–3 baht (VND 1,600–2,400), half of production costs. In Ratchaburi and Samut Sakhon, farmers left coconuts to rot on trees.

Durian: Out of Trouble Yet?

Earlier this year, Vietnam’s durian exports encountered setbacks after Chinese authorities returned shipments contaminated with cadmium and Auramine O. Exports stabilized in April, doubled in May, and grew exponentially in the following months—until testing facilities became overwhelmed.

On October 11, all durian testing laboratories were temporarily closed for maintenance, leaving shipments stuck in warehouses, factories, and border gates. Exporters halted purchases, prices plummeted, and Dak Lak farmers grew anxious. On October 24, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Hoang Trung held an emergency meeting with relevant agencies, calling for transparency in testing capacity and harmonized results between Vietnam and China. One week later, testing resumed.

By November 1, durian containers were once again cleared for export to China. According to the Plant Protection Department, an average of 300–400 trucks are now passing through border checkpoints daily—200–250 via Lang Son, 100–150 via Lao Cai, and around 50 through Mong Cai—bringing relief to exporters and farmers after more than 2,000 containers had been stranded for three weeks at the peak of Dak Lak’s harvest.

Mr. Huynh Tan Dat, Director of the Plant Protection Department, confirmed that 24 testing facilities across Vietnam are currently recognized by China’s GACC for durian export certification, with a combined capacity of 3,200 tests per day—sufficient to meet industry demand.

However, there is a paradox. Despite leading the country with nearly 45,000 hectares of durian cultivation (including over 26,000 hectares in harvest), Dak Lak still lacks a laboratory capable of testing for cadmium and Auramine O in durian exports.

The province’s harvest season is expected to last another two to three weeks. Concerns are now spreading to the Mekong Delta, which is entering its own harvest period this week, extending through January. The region has a total durian cultivation area of 35,000 hectares, with Tien Giang alone accounting for 24,000 hectares—or nearly 70% of the total.

According to Mr. Nguyen Van Muoi, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (Vinafruit), heavy rains and flooding this year are likely to affect off-season yields in the Mekong Delta. Some enterprises are considering freezing unsold fresh durian for export early next year, when supply is lower and prices rise—particularly ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, when consumption typically surges.

Data from the General Department of Customs and the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment show that durian exports in the first quarter of 2025 were below USD 100 million per month. By April, they surpassed the USD 100 million mark, rising steadily thereafter: USD 204 million in May, USD 300 million in June, nearly USD 400 million in July, USD 589 million in August, and reaching USD 972 million in September.

Source: Kinh te Sai Gon Online