In the first quarter of 2026, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector continued to affirm its role as a pillar of the economy, recording growth of 3.58% and contributing 5.60% to GDP. Export turnover reached USD 16.69 billion. However, behind these positive figures lies mounting pressure from declining prices of key commodities, shrinking markets and the urgent need to transition toward a higher-quality, more sustainable growth model.

Maintaining its pillar role amid volatility

According to the General Statistics Office, GDP in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated to have increased by 7.83% year-on-year, higher than the 7.07% recorded in the same period of 2025. Within this, agriculture, forestry and fisheries grew by 3.58%, continuing to make a significant contribution to overall economic growth.

Amid global uncertainties and high growth targets set from the beginning of the year, the Government has identified agriculture not only as a stabilizing pillar but also as a potential new growth driver, aiming for USD 100 billion in exports by 2030.

Agricultural production in the first quarter recorded several positive highlights. Perennial crops showed solid growth, with durian increasing by around 15%, jackfruit by 12.8% and dragon fruit by 3.1%. Livestock production continued to recover, with the pig herd up 2.9% and poultry up 3.3%, while pork output reached 1.44 million tonnes, up 4.9%.

Total export turnover of agriculture, forestry and fisheries in the first three months reached USD 16.69 billion, up 5.9% year-on-year. In the first two months alone, exports exceeded USD 11 billion, up 17.1%, largely driven by strong demand from China.

The sector recorded a trade surplus of USD 4.78 billion, with key contributors including wood and wood products, coffee and shrimp.

Fruits and vegetables stood out with export value reaching USD 1.54 billion, up 32.1%. Pepper exports also increased significantly in both volume and value, while seafood maintained positive growth momentum.

However, a notable paradox is that many commodities increased in volume but declined in value. Coffee exports rose 12.6% in volume but fell 6.4% in value due to a sharp drop in average prices. Rice exports remained almost unchanged in volume, yet export value declined by 7.8%.

This situation reflects growing pressure on export prices, highlighting the need to shift from quantity-driven growth to value enhancement and higher quality.

In addition, exports to the United States declined by 5.2%, reflecting challenges from trade competition and increasingly stringent technical barriers. The seafood sector, particularly shrimp, has also been affected by trade defense measures.

One of the strategic priorities for 2026 is the implementation of the project to develop one million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice in the Mekong Delta. This initiative is considered a key step to enhance the value of rice while contributing to greenhouse gas reduction and fulfilling international carbon neutrality commitments.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Tran Thanh Nam stated: “The one-million-hectare project for high-quality, low-emission rice in the Mekong Delta represents a turning point in restructuring the rice sector, improving farmers’ incomes while meeting emission reduction commitments.”

The Mekong Delta currently accounts for more than half of Vietnam’s rice cultivation area. Transitioning toward ecological and circular models, combined with data systems, traceability and regional linkages, will form the foundation for improving competitiveness.

However, the rice sector also faces rising production costs. Many exporters are under pressure as costs increase while selling prices do not keep pace, requiring more flexible policy management to ensure benefits for farmers.

Addressing bottlenecks to drive sustainable growth

In 2026, the agriculture sector targets export turnover of USD 73–74 billion, representing an increase of around 3.7–4% compared to the previous year.

Agricultural products are expected to contribute approximately USD 40 billion, with fruits and vegetables continuing to lead growth, targeting USD 9–10 billion, driven by advantages in green production and expanded deep processing.

Vietnam currently ranks among the world’s leading exporters of pepper and cashew nuts, and remains a major player in coffee and rice exports. There remains significant potential for market expansion, particularly through free trade agreements and emerging markets such as Africa, Latin America and Halal markets.

Despite positive outcomes, the sector faces multiple challenges. Climate risks are increasing, particularly water shortages due to El Niño, which may affect production. Rising input costs are becoming a major barrier to green transition, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Digital transformation in agriculture remains slow and fragmented. Many farmers still rely on traditional practices, while businesses face difficulties accessing information and financing.

Notably, illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing continues to be a major challenge as Vietnam prepares to work with the European Commission inspection delegation.

According to experts, it is necessary to improve institutional frameworks, build a unified traceability system, develop a circular economy model and strengthen support policies such as agricultural insurance to encourage long-term investment.

Deputy Minister Phung Duc Tien stated that in the second quarter and the remainder of the year, the sector will focus on completing institutional reforms, accelerating digital transformation, building sectoral databases and promoting green transition.

The restructuring strategy will continue along three product pillars, linked with geographical indications, traceability and stronger coordination among stakeholders in the value chain.

For rice, market regulation measures will be strengthened to ensure stable consumption during peak harvest seasons. The seafood sector will continue to be developed as a key marine economic driver, with a focus on aquaculture and sustainable development.

The sector aims to achieve growth of around 3.6% in the second quarter, maintaining its role as a stabilizing pillar of the economy.

While the results in the first quarter of 2026 are positive, they also highlight the urgent need for a shift in the growth model. Transitioning from “volume” to “value”, and from “rapid growth” to “sustainable development”, will be the central challenge for Vietnam’s agricultural sector in the coming period.

Source: Bao Chinh phu