The US’s temporary suspension of high reciprocal tariffs, instead imposing a 10% tariff for 90 days, is a temporary “quiet” in trade tensions. Therefore, the second quarter of 2025 is considered the “golden time” for Vietnamese agricultural, forestry and fishery export enterprises to find solutions to avoid being knocked out of this important market...

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in 2024, Vietnam's agricultural, forestry and fishery exports to the United States will reach 13.8 billion USD, accounting for 21.6% of the total export turnover of the entire agricultural, forestry and fishery sector. With this result, the United States continues to be the number 1 export market, followed by China with 13.6 billion USD.

In just over a week, the export of many agricultural products has witnessed unpredictable fluctuations, due to the US declaring very high reciprocal taxes, then a few days later deciding to temporarily postpone the imposition of reciprocal taxes for 90 days, causing the situation to change unexpectedly.

"FLUCTUATIONS" OF PEPPER AND COFFEE PRICES

As the number 1 pepper exporter to the United States, Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phuc Sinh Group, said that from April 2 to April 9, 2025, most import partners from the United States asked to postpone or cancel pepper import orders, fearing that the tax increase would be very risky. However, from April 10, 2025 (after the United States temporarily postponed the corresponding tax) until now, partners have been texting to import goods, and many orders have been sent. Currently, the sudden increase in orders has forced the company to increase production to three shifts.

"From April 2 to April 9, 2025, most import partners from the United States asked to postpone or cancel pepper import orders, fearing that the tax increase would be very risky. However, from April 10, 2025 to now, partners have been texting to import goods, and many orders have been sent. Currently, the sudden increase in orders has forced businesses to increase production to three shifts."Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phuc Sinh Group.

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, in 2024, our country will export about 230,000 tons of pepper, earning 1.31 billion USD. Of which, exports to the United States will reach 72,300 tons of pepper, worth about 409 million USD, accounting for 31% of Vietnam's total pepper export turnover. In the first quarter of 2025, Vietnamese enterprises exported nearly 47,300 tons of pepper of all kinds, worth 324.6 million USD, down 16.7% in volume, but up 37.8% in value (due to pepper prices staying at a high level) compared to the same period in 2024. Of which, exports to the United States will be 11,019 tons, earning 83.4 million USD.

Domestic pepper prices in early April 2025 decreased slightly, then began to fluctuate: on April 11, pepper prices increased sharply by 4,000-5,000 VND/kg compared to April 10, to 153,000-155,000 VND/kg, by April 15, pepper prices in key pepper growing areas of Vietnam were generally at 156,000 - 157,000 VND/kg.

Regarding coffee, Vietnam's Robusta coffee export price in the second half of March 2025 set a record of more than 5,700 USD/ton, an increase of more than 73% compared to the same period in 2024. However, in the first 10 days of April 2025, the export coffee price suddenly plummeted, to just under 4,800 USD/ton (April 9). Since April 11, coffee prices on the world market and Vietnam's coffee export prices have recovered.

On the London exchange, as of April 15, 2025, coffee prices increased for the fifth consecutive session with Robusta, as US tariff issues subsided. On April 15, 2025 alone, on the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices increased by 3.22 - 3.92% compared to April 14, 2025. Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures for delivery in May 2025 increased by 164 USD/ton to 5,263 USD/ton. The price of July 2025 futures increased by 190 USD/ton to 5,239 USD/ton. However, coffee prices have not yet returned to the high level before the US tariff "storm" hit. Previously, on April 1, 2025, the price of Robusta coffee futures for delivery in May 2025 was 5,366 USD/ton.

Currently, Vietnam's coffee export price has recovered to the mark of 5,200 USD/ton, but is still much lower than the peak price in March 2025. In the domestic market, if on April 8, 2025, the coffee price dropped to only about 120,000 VND/kg, then by April 15, 2025, it had reached 130,400 - 134,000 VND/kg.

"SILENCE" TO RESTRUCTURING THE MARKET

Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai, Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), said that taking advantage of the 90-day suspension of the US reciprocal tax on Vietnam, VIFOREST and local associations have been trying to promote trade and diversify markets. Meanwhile, many other businesses are also planning to adjust and expand their consumption markets.

In the immediate future, during the 3-month suspension of reciprocal tax, businesses will take advantage of the opportunity to boost exports of existing orders. At the same time, they will strengthen connections and expand to markets such as Europe, Japan, Korea, etc. In addition, they will adjust the customer structure, focus on exploiting the domestic market, train and improve skills for workers, reduce costs and rationalize production to strengthen internal strength.

Mr. Phan Hoang Duy, Deputy General Director of Can Tho Seafood Import-Export Joint Stock Company (Caseamex), said that Caseamex currently exports pangasius products to more than 30 markets, of which the US market accounts for over 50% of total output. The US is the most important market, due to its stability and ability to dominate other markets. “These days, businesses are promoting market diversification, reconnecting with old partners in Europe, Canada, Brazil, Japan, Australia and some Asian countries. At the same time, applying measures to cut production costs; adjusting customer structure, focusing on exploiting the domestic market, training and improving skills for workers, reducing costs and rationalizing production to strengthen internal strength”, Mr. Duy shared.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), with an annual seafood export turnover of about 2 billion USD to the United States, accounting for 1/5 of Vietnam's seafood export value, this market is not only holding the number 1 market share, but also has a high orientation for the Vietnamese seafood industry. The United States is the number 1 import market for shrimp and tuna; the number 2 market for Vietnamese pangasius.

"Right now, Vietnamese seafood exporting enterprises should focus on speeding up shipments that are still in transit and transported to the destination country, at least in the next 90 days to minimize the risk of being imposed with high taxes. At the same time, actively and proactively restructure strategies, prepare plans to search, expand, and replace the US market with other markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, etc. to build a resilient system," Ms. Le Hang, a market analyst at VASEP, recommended.

DEEP PROCESSING AND MARKET DIVERSIFICATION ARE KEY FACTORS

Realizing the risks of “putting all your eggs in one basket”, many agricultural processing and production enterprises are now implementing a strategy of expanding their markets, diversifying their partners; at the same time, investing in modern production technology, improving quality control capacity and transparent traceability.

As a strong enterprise in processing and exporting fruit products, including the largest aloe vera and coconut jelly processing in Vietnam, Mr. Pham Van Thu, Chairman of the Board of Directors of GC Food Company, said that in the past, the main export was to the US market, but now the products have been exported to 22 countries. GC Food expects that in 2025, India will be one of the markets with outstanding growth. In addition, GC Food continues to develop ASEAN markets such as Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.

Source: VnEconomy