While the country's trade deficit surged to nearly 14 billion USD, agricultural products continued to maintain a stable trade surplus of 7.5 billion USD, equivalent to a monthly "net profit" of 1.5 billion USD during the first 5 months of the year. Key commodities are projected to further increase their trade surplus in the coming time.

Conquering the 20.7 billion USD milestone

Despite bringing in a net profit of 7.5 billion USD, compared to the same period last year, the growth rate of the agricultural trade surplus fell by up to 9.3%. The reason is that the purchasing power of importing markets declined due to economic difficulties, and geopolitical fluctuations drove up oil prices as well as transportation costs. These obstructive factors persist, making the goal of surpassing the 20.7 billion USD trade surplus milestone of 2025 much more challenging in the remaining 7 months of 2026. However, agriculture—a sector often likened to the "backbone" or "shock-absorbing cushion" of the economy—always finds its own way to shine at the right moment.

The most typical example is the rice industry. Over the past 5 months, rice exports faced many disadvantages in both volume and price, yet the trade surplus increased by 3.7% year-on-year, reaching 1.3 billion USD. This was because enterprises reduced import volumes compared to before. Furthermore, since May, rice exports have bounced back with a production volume reaching up to 1.1 million tons. Export rice prices also increased by an average of about 30 - 40 USD compared to the beginning of the year, rising to 500 - 520 USD/ton. Currently, the El Nino phenomenon is returning and is likely to reach a strong intensity by the end of the year. This means rice and general food production in many Asian countries will drop, causing prices to rise rapidly. Some experts and businesses forecast that by the end of this year and the beginning of next year, rice prices could return to the price plateau seen during the 2023 - 2024 El Nino period. During that phase, Vietnam exported up to 9.1 million tons of rice, pocketing 5.6 billion USD.

A recent in-depth analysis on Reuters regarding the impacts of El Nino cited global experts' opinions that current scenarios for the El Nino phenomenon indicate that prices of essential food and agricultural products could increase by 10 - 50%. Particularly for crops highly vulnerable to weather such as rice, palm oil, sugarcane, and coffee, prices are likely to skyrocket by 50 - 100%, or even higher. Prof. Dr. Bui Chi Buu, former Director of the Institute of Agricultural Science for Southern Vietnam, predicted: Rice prices will certainly continue to rise because, according to forecasts by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global production tends to decrease due to El Nino and shows a long-term trend of not increasing due to risks from climate change. Vietnam is a rice powerhouse; in the long run, it should build a strategy for responsible and mutually beneficial supply cooperation with traditional customers.

Similarly, the trade surplus of the fruit and vegetable industry over the past period also edged up slightly by 5.5%, reaching 1.4 billion USD. More encouragingly, there are signs of acceleration starting this June. According to Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (VINAFRUIT), in June, durian in the Eastern region begins its harvest season, followed closely by the Central Highlands. The period from June to November is the decisive phase for Vietnam's durian industry. In 2025, the export turnover of this commodity reached about 3.5 billion USD, and this year it is expected to hit 4 - 4.5 billion USD. Durian imports are negligible, so this is almost entirely a "net profit" for the fruit and vegetable sector. On that basis, it is safe to believe that if nothing abnormal occurs, the entire fruit and vegetable industry will secure a trade surplus of around 6 billion USD.

Apart from durian, many other products such as Vietnam's fresh coconuts or pomelos are also growing well. In addition to China, European markets, especially the Netherlands and Germany, have all increased their imports of Vietnamese fruits and vegetables. Notably, from the beginning of the year until now, the number of complaints regarding chemical residue levels sent to the Vietnam SPS Office has continued to decrease compared to 2025, whereas 2025 had already seen a drop of over 50% compared to the previous year. This demonstrates that our export mindset has shifted from "selling what we have" to "selling what the market needs in a smart way."

With many new positive factors, the agricultural sector is projected to potentially surpass old records.

Agriculture is Vietnam's strategic advantage

As someone who has dedicated his entire life to the Mekong Delta agricultural basket, Dr. Tran Huu Hiep (FPT University, Can Tho) said: Looking back at the difficult periods from the Covid-19 pandemic, global supply chain disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, and growth slowdowns in many major economies to recent trade fluctuations, agriculture has always been the sector that maintains significant resilience for the economy. It is no coincidence that many experts call agriculture the "cradle" of the economy. This is Vietnam's strategic advantage in a context where the world is increasingly concerned about food security, nutrition security, and sustainable development.

In particular, Vietnam currently possesses many industries holding top global positions. For instance, Vietnamese rice is not only growing in volume but also significantly enhancing its value and quality, step-by-step asserting its brand in high-end markets. Coffee continues to maintain its leading export position in the world with ever-growing added value. Tropical fruits like durian, banana, mango, and dragon fruit are expanding their market share in China, Japan, South Korea, and many other fastidious markets. Seafood, especially shrimp and pangasius, remains a key export sector.

What is worth mentioning is that the room for development is still immense. Instead of merely exporting raw materials, Vietnam can fully advance deeper into the global value chain through deep processing, branding, developing cold logistics, and a circular economy in agriculture. This is precisely the new growth space that helps agriculture not only play the role of ensuring food security but also become a driving force for economic growth in the coming period.

According to Dr. Tran Huu Hiep, against the backdrop of Vietnam setting high economic growth targets for the coming years, agriculture cannot merely be viewed as a supporting sector but must be recognized as a strategic economic branch. To leverage that role, focus should be placed on three core groups of solutions.

First, step up investment in high-tech agriculture, green agriculture, and deep processing. Preferential credit policies, agricultural innovation funds, and mechanisms to attract enterprises to invest in raw material areas need to be deployed more vigorously to raise the added value of Vietnamese agricultural products. Second, develop infrastructure adapted to climate change and ensure water security for the Mekong Delta. Third, strongly switch from an agricultural production mindset to an agricultural economic mindset. The focus is not just on producing more but producing according to market signals, international standards, and global consumer demands; simultaneously, building a national brand for key industries.

"Investing in agriculture today is not only to ensure food security, but also an investment in the resilience, adaptability, and sustainable growth of Vietnam's economy in the future," Dr. Tran Huu Hiep emphasized.