In the second half of the year, agricultural orders show signs of recovery in a number of large markets, but the export race has shifted to a state of layered pressure from technical standards and residue control to logistics and capital costs. Enterprises are forced to tighten raw material zones, increase testing, and consider the value chain as the "admission ticket" to retain markets.

The notable point is that the recovery of orders does not go hand in hand with a "loosening" of market conditions. Conversely, barriers are operating in an accumulative direction. Agricultural exporting (export) enterprises no longer face each individual issue, but must handle multiple layers of pressure simultaneously within the exact same shipment.

That also means enterprises (enterprises) no longer merely compete on price or output volume, but on the capacity to overcome multiple "filtering layers" of the market.

Returning orders, layered pressure

In an update report near the end of June 2026, the Analysis Department of ABS Securities Company regarding Nafoods Group Joint Stock Company (NAF)—an enterprise specialized in exporting agricultural products—recorded that business prospects remain positive.

The basis for this evaluation originates from the improving signals of Vietnamese agricultural demand across multiple export markets, particularly within the processed fruit group. Within this, passion fruit in the EU market, one of the core markets, is projected to continue growing in the coming time.

According to ABS, the above improvement momentum will continue to be consolidated when a series of new projects of NAF are expected to enter into operation, thereby significantly upgrading processing capacity. Concurrently, the selling price of passion fruit breeding stocks has returned to the market plateau, helping to cut input fluctuations. This factor is expected to support the revenue and profit of the enterprise's breeding stock segment to return to a growth trajectory in the coming time.

On that foundation, NAF continues to expand its product catalog to new strategic commodity sectors such as durian, coffee, and coconuts. This is a step aiming to create additional long-term growth room as these items are drawing high demand across multiple export markets.

However, according to notes from ABS, this positive prospect still goes hand in hand with not a few notable risks. Conflicts in the Middle East cause oil prices to escalate, pulling along a sharp rise in logistics transport and insurance costs.

Agricultural exporting enterprises no longer face each individual issue, but must handle multiple layers of pressure simultaneously within the exact same shipment.

Concurrently, NAF's financial health weakened back in Q1/2026 when cash flow from operating activities recorded a large negative level. Accounts receivable from customers and other receivables rose strongly. Meanwhile, construction-in-progress costs and inventories also climbed up considerably, thereby capable of creating pressure on payment capacities in the coming time.

ABS noted that with the debt loan balance having increased to a high level, this enterprise is bearing larger pressure from its financial structure. The interest rate plateau remaining maintained in a relatively high zone will continue to cause interest expenses to increase, thereby eroding profits in the coming time.

Not merely financial pressure within individual enterprises, agricultural exports in the second half of the year also bear pressure from importing markets. Recently, the EU recorded an 11% increase in food safety warnings, within which fruits and vegetables occupied a large proportion, while concurrently continuing to tighten control over this commodity group. In parallel, the EU sharply lowered maximum residue levels (MRLs), with many levels approaching the detection threshold, driving up non-compliance risks for exported agricultural goods.

According to the new draft, the EU plans to lower many MRL levels to the limit of quantification threshold because multiple active ingredients have either not been approved or have had approvals withdrawn, applying to multiple commodity groups such as tea, coffee, spices, fruits and vegetables, and grains. Concurrently, the EU also amends phytosanitary regulations to tighten control over harmful organisms, thereby capable of directly affecting quarantine requirements and import dossiers.

Not uniquely the EU, multiple other core export markets concurrently elevate standards. Japan continues to maintain a popular residue level of 0.01 ppm against multiple food groups.

Investing for the "admission ticket"

Australia and New Zealand are also amending regulations toward tighter control, concentrating on adjusting maximum residue levels (MRLs) for a number of agricultural chemicals and veterinary drugs in food. This move demonstrates the trend where importing markets increasingly tighten the control of chemical residues in agricultural products and food.

Meanwhile, Turkey adds requirements on information declaration on Phytosanitary Certificates or Phytosanitary Certificates for Re-export. Starting August 4, 2026, the contents regulated in Annex 4 of the Regulation on Phytosanitary must be fully written on the certificate and comply with the ISPM 12 standard. If failing to satisfy this requirement, the certificate will be deemed invalid and the shipment will not be permitted to import into Turkey.

Confronting the trend of tightening standards on a wide scale, commodity associations also recommend that enterprises proactively adapt. With the spice industry, the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association requests that enterprises review the utilization of plant protection drugs within raw material zones. Particularly, it is crucial to tightly control active ingredients possessing risks of having maximum residue levels (MRLs) lowered in the EU and developed markets.

Not stopping at raw material zones, this Association also advises enterprises to step up residue testing prior to export and regularly update the quarantine requirements of each market. Concurrently, it is necessary to coordinate closely with importers to guarantee that dossiers, documents, and quality standards satisfy the new regulations.

Agricultural export orders may be returning, but the "admission ticket" of markets has never been as expensive as at this moment. In the race through multiple layers of pressure, enterprises that retain value chains will retain orders.

Meanwhile, pressure on agricultural exporting enterprises does not only originate from technical barriers. According to the latest warning put forward by the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (Vasep) on July 1, alongside market risks, global container freight rates are emerging as a major challenge for seafood export activities in the second half of the year.

Notably, seafood is an industry possessing a very large proportion of transportation via reefer containers and relies tightly on temperatures, shipping schedules, as well as delivery times.

Therefore, according to Vasep, every fluctuation in ocean freight, reefer container surcharges, fuel surcharges, and insurance fees drives up the export costs of enterprises. Besides, port congestion situations or vessel space shortages also directly affect delivery progress and the capacity to execute orders.

The pressure becomes even larger when the maritime transport market enters the peak season. This Association stated that the sentiment of bringing goods to warehouses early to avoid tariff risks is causing the year-end import season to arrive earlier than usual, thereby increasing pressure on the spot market. For seafood enterprises, the most distinct impact lies in transportation routes to the US and the EU, where reefer container costs inherently sit higher than dry cargo and very easily incur additional surcharges.

The above developments show that pressure on agricultural exporting enterprises no longer originates from a single factor but is stacking up in multiple layers, from technical standards and logistics to capital costs.

Export orders may be returning, but the "admission ticket" of markets has never been as expensive as at this moment. In the race through multiple layers of pressure, enterprises that retain value chains will retain orders. The remainder will be eliminated by the very new standards.

Source: Vnbusiness