Although the “picture” of agricultural exports in the first quarter of 2025 is still positive, however, if we look closely at some key products such as vegetables, seafood, rice, etc. with erratic fluctuations, we will see that there are still many challenges ahead that need to be overcome. Especially technical barriers, risks of market fluctuations, and competitiveness.

The most disappointing thing is the export of fruits and vegetables, when in the first quarter of 2025, the export turnover only reached 1.14 billion USD, down 11.3% compared to the previous year. This is completely inversely proportional to the first months of 2024 when fruits and vegetables accelerated their growth quite well.

Facing the Barrier in a Difficult Situation

Many opinions are concerned that if fruit and vegetable exports continue to "fall" in the second quarter of 2025, the target of reaching a turnover of 8 billion USD this year will be difficult to achieve, and may even decrease compared to last year.

Talking about the current challenges of fruit and vegetable exports, Dr. Doan Huu Tien, Southern Fruit Research Institute (SOFRI), said that although the export market has expanded in recent years, it is still mainly focused on a number of key markets, with high risks when these markets fluctuate in import policies and technical barriers.

This can be clearly seen from the Chinese market (the proportion of fruit and vegetable export value accounts for 44.5% in the first quarter of 2025). Especially with durian, from the beginning of 2025, China requires all imported durian shipments to have analysis results for Cadmium residue and yellow substance O (Auramine O) at laboratories recognized by this country.

According to Dr. Tien, importing countries are increasingly imposing technical barriers (quality, food safety, etc.) that affect Vietnam's fruit exports. Meanwhile, the area of ​​fruit trees with a growing area code is still limited. The application of technical processes is not uniform. The quality of fruit is uneven. It is difficult to control food hygiene and safety and trace the origin of fruits supplied to the market. The area of ​​fruit trees with GAP certification is still modest.

In addition, Dr. Doan Huu Tien also assessed that the competitiveness of Vietnamese fruits is not high. There are not many reputable brands in the international market. Moreover, the state's support for planting new varieties and building specialized growing areas is still limited, lacking high-quality raw materials to compete in exports.

“Not to mention the high cost of transporting exported fruits, making it difficult to compete with other exporting countries. Fruit preservation, processing, and product diversification are still weak and lacking,” the expert from the Southern Fruit Institute pointed out.

Regarding seafood exports, according to Ms. Le Hang, Communications Director of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), despite an impressive recovery in the first quarter of 2025 (with a turnover of 2.45 billion USD, an increase of 26% compared to the same period in 2024), it still faces many challenges. Especially trade barriers such as MMPA, IUU yellow card from the EU, and the possibility of increasing tariffs from the United States under the new administration are challenges that the Vietnamese seafood industry will continue to face and find solutions for in 2025.

For example, tuna. According to Ms. Hang, it is like a dark spot in the bright picture when this is the only product group that recorded a decrease in turnover in March 2025, reaching 83.3 million USD (down 0.7%), although in the first quarter of 2025 it still increased slightly by 3.6% (222.7 million USD).

The main reason is the pressure from the IUU regulation, which stipulates a minimum tuna size of 0.5m, which has tightened the source of raw materials for export processing. In addition, the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) of the United States - the largest market for Vietnamese tuna - is also a challenge for the tuna industry.

It should be noted that the US NOAA has initially issued a preliminary notice of not recognizing equivalence for the Vietnamese seafood industry, which means that if NOAA's requirements are not met on time, Vietnamese seafood will be banned from being imported into the United States from January 1, 2026. Ms. Hang said that if there is no quick solution, Vietnamese tuna is at risk of losing market share in the US, and at the same time, it will have a domino effect on other exploited products.

Need to find a way out, not wait for "sugar to fall"

Regarding the issue of NOAA's preliminary ruling from the beginning of 2025 on affected seafood species such as tuna, some other marine fish species, squid, crab, etc., Dr. Ho Quoc Luc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Sao Ta Food Joint Stock Company (FMC) raised the question of whether it was a surprise or not?

And according to Mr. Luc, this is not. Because the US side issued the notice 8 years ago and applied it to all related countries. So why has it not met the requirements of the US side? Up to now, only the explanations of Japan and Indonesia have met the requirements. Thus, the problem is that the question the US side has put forward is too difficult and cannot be handled faster.

According to Mr. Luc, this story and the IUU story are probably of the same genre. The nature of the matter is not necessarily a puzzle or a technical barrier. The problem is the requirement for similarity in management standards.

“How can our management experience, financial resources, and human resources be similar? Of course, related seafood processing enterprises also need to find a short-term way out, not just wait for luck and the fruit to fall,” the chairman of FMC confided.

As for rice exports, data shows that the export volume in the first quarter of 2025 reached 2.2 million tons and 1.14 billion USD, up 0.6% in volume but down 19.7% in value compared to the same period in 2024. The average export price of rice is estimated at 522.1 USD/ton, down 20.1% compared to the same period in 2024.

With the current situation, many forecast that Vietnam's rice exports in 2025 may only reach 7.5 million tons, down from the record of more than 9 million tons in 2024.

Looking at the current ups and downs in exports, observers say that rice is facing many challenges from fluctuations in the international market. Notably, rice prices have fallen due to increased world supply, decreased import demand, and especially India's lifting of the rice export ban, pushing a large amount of rice into the international market.

According to the latest forecast on Vietnam's rice situation from the Price Management Department (Ministry of Finance), it is a challenge from international competition: Some of Vietnam's major export markets, especially India and Thailand, are still maintaining a policy of reducing prices to compete.

According to the Price Management Department, after the price of rice in Vietnam in March 2025 stabilizes, it is forecasted that in the following months, prices will continue to remain stable and may increase slightly, especially for exported rice products. The Government and enterprises need to continue supporting measures, while focusing on developing traditional export markets and expanding potential markets.

The Price Management Department also advised rice exporting enterprises to sign contracts early with traditional customers (Philippines, Indonesia, China) when prices are stable, to avoid the risk of price adjustments in May 2025.

If we look at the export "picture" of key agricultural products such as vegetables, seafood, and rice in the first quarter of 2025 with significant challenges, we will see that the way out that Vietnamese exporters need to do in the coming time is to overcome technical barriers and improve competitiveness. In particular, it is necessary to meet high requirements for quality and high input management, as well as closely monitor market fluctuations to have flexible adaptation strategies.

Source: VnBusiness