The new round of additional import tariffs from the US does not alter overall export structures thanks to a large-scale exemption list, yet will create a sharp differentiation between benefited infrastructure and technology groups and traditional manufacturing sectors facing mounting cost pressures.

On July 24, 2026, the US officially applied additional import tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 against goods originating from 60 economies, covering approximately 99.4% of total import turnover into this country.

This is a tariff rate replacing the temporary 10% tariff under Section 122, which was effective for a maximum of only 150 days and has expired.

According to analysts at Mirae Asset Securities Company, the new policy was deployed following an investigation by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) regarding forced labor issues.

After the tariff imposition mechanism under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was rejected by the US Supreme Court in February 2026, Section 301 was chosen as the long-term legal basis featuring a four-year review cycle and being difficult to reverse through legal proceedings.

The USTR divided the 60 economies into two groups. Among them, 17 economies are subject to a 10% tariff rate thanks to having enacted prohibition laws, signed ART Agreements, or constructed partial control mechanisms.

Vietnam belongs to the group of 43 economies bearing a 12.5% tariff due to not yet fully satisfying the USTR's criteria.

According to Mirae Asset, bearing the 12.5% tariff rate causes export costs for Vietnamese goods entering the US to be approximately 2.5 percentage points higher compared to the group of ASEAN countries bearing only a 10% tariff, thereby diminishing price competitiveness advantages.

Besides, enterprises also face prolonged legal risks due to Section 301's four-year review cycle.

However, this securities firm considers that the above policy has not significantly altered Vietnam's export structure thanks to a large-scale exemption mechanism through Annex A.

Accordingly, Annex A is a list of commodity items completely exempted by the USTR from additional tariffs under Section 301. This list is viewed as an important "shield" as it protects approximately 49% of Vietnam's total export turnover to the US, primarily electronics, computers, semiconductors, and telecommunications equipment.

Billions of USD in exports face pressure

Mirae Asset evaluates that the new tariff policy will generate varying degrees of impact across industry sectors, within which textiles and garments, footwear, wood and furniture, and seafood are sectors experiencing clearly negative influences.

For the textile and garment sector, enterprises such as TNG, MSH, STK, TCM, VGT, and GIL will bear the additional 12.5% tariff. This is a sector with profit margins of only about 3-10%, while the US market contributes up to 40-50% of export turnover. According to Mirae Asset, losing approximately 2.5% in price advantage compared to Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Indonesia will create substantial pressure on the profit margins of enterprises with large export proportions to the US.

The footwear sector is also forecasted to suffer negative impacts at similar tariff rates. According to Mirae Asset, enterprises like TCM, TNG, ADS, and GIL face risks of processing orders shifting to Cambodia or Indonesia due to heavy reliance on the US market and low profit margins. Simultaneously, international brands such as Nike and Adidas are expected to continue exerting pressure to lower processing costs on Vietnamese enterprises.

For the wood and furniture sector, the US currently accounts for over 55% of the entire sector's export turnover. Enterprises such as PTB, SAV, ACG, GDT, and TTF are evaluated as suffering direct impacts, particularly the upholstered furniture product group when not belonging to exempt categories in Annex A and still having to bear additional tariffs under Section 232 at 25-50%.

In the seafood field, the degree of impact is evaluated as lower but remains in a negative direction. Enterprises such as VHC, ANV, FMC, MPC, and IDI continue to bear a 12.5% tariff, while additionally having to stack anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD). This causes pangasius and shrimp items exported to the US to face greater competitive pressure than before against competitors like India and Ecuador.

In the opposite direction, Mirae Asset evaluates that the steel, aluminum, and copper sectors face impacts merely at a neutral level. Enterprises such as HPG, NKG, HSG, and SMC are currently already subject to adjustments under Section 232, thus are not stacked with additional Section 301 tariffs to avoid double taxation scenarios. Among them, NKG and HSG still bear pressure due to having relatively large export proportions to the US, while HPG can benefit from domestic demand as public investment disbursement is accelerated.

Electronics and semiconductors benefit thanks to exemption list

On the positive side, Mirae Asset considers that electronics, semiconductors, raw agricultural products, energy, and enterprise groups serving the domestic market will be little impacted, and may even benefit from tariff exemption mechanisms as well as global supply chain shift trends.

Among them, electronics and computers are the group benefiting most clearly as they belong to the completely exempt list under Annex A. Enterprises such as FPT, DGW, CMG, and SAM are evaluated as little impacted because this commodity group currently accounts for about 49% of Vietnam's export turnover to the US, mainly coming from the FDI sector. Tariff exemption helps corporations such as Samsung, Foxconn, and Intel continue maintaining supply chains while limiting spillover impacts on domestic technology and distribution enterprises.

Similarly, the semiconductor and telecommunications fields are also positively evaluated thanks to being included in the exemption list. Mirae Asset expects enterprises like FPT, CMG, ELC, and CTR to benefit from investment shift waves under the "China+1" strategy, against a backdrop where the tariff gap between the US and China continues to propel tech FDI inflows into Vietnam.

For the raw agricultural product group, Mirae Asset evaluates the impact at a mildly positive level. Enterprises such as PAN, LTG, TAR, TRC, and DPR benefit as many commodities such as coffee, cashews, and pepper belong to tariff-exempt categories. In addition, US supply diversification alongside the capability to expand exports to Europe through EVFTA and RCEP member countries is expected to help diminish reliance on a single market, even though direct impacts on listed enterprises are not yet substantial.

The energy and fertilizer group is also forecasted to benefit mildly thanks to raw material commodities being located in the exemption list. According to Mirae Asset, enterprises such as DPM, DCM, POW, GAS, and PVD can benefit from raw material demand as well as infrastructure investment and economic stimulus programs.

For enterprise groups primarily serving the domestic market such as MSN, VNM, KDC, MWG, and SAB, Mirae Asset evaluates the impact at a mildly positive level. As they bear no direct tariffs while weakening demand in the US may pull down global raw material prices, these enterprises gain additional conditions to diversify input supply sources and improve production costs. Simultaneously, concentrating on the internal market also helps this group of enterprises limit direct influences from the new US tariff policy.

Regarding Vietnam's reaction to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) imposing new 12.5% tariff rates on goods from all "under investigation" economies under Section 301, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Pham Thu Hang stated that the USTR's decision has not fully reflected the actual context and Vietnam's efforts in preventing, mitigating, and eliminating forced labor, including banning the import of products using forced labor.

The Spokesperson stated that Vietnam strictly prohibits all forms of forced labor, seriously complying with the regulations of the International Labour Organization (ILO), international treaties, and free trade agreements to which Vietnam is a member.

On July 22, 2026, the Government issued Decree No. 292/2026/ND-CP, which regulates the ban on importing goods extracted, produced, or manufactured entirely or in part through forced labor practices.

Vietnam will continue to exchange and work with the US side in a constructive and cooperative spirit, requesting the US side to fully evaluate measures Vietnam has deployed in order to adjust tariff rates applied to Vietnamese goods in accordance with reality as well as Vietnam's law-making and enforcement efforts.

Source: Bao dien tu Dan Viet